NOAA is forecasting above-average hurricane activity again this season.
It would be the seventh consecutive hurricane season with above-average activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 14 to 21 named storms, including up to 10 hurricanes, with the possibility of six of those being major.
The agency points to warmer-than-average water temperatures, among other factors. But NOAA’s Rick Spinrad says forecasting has gotten more accurate in recent years.
“The cone of uncertainty has gotten significantly smaller since 2005. We’ve also seen improvements in our intensity forecast. Forecasters can now more accurately predict changes to hurricane intensity early in a storm’s life cycle.”
Scientists also are studying how climate change can make hurricanes more damaging. The outlook applies to overall activity and is not a landfall forecast. Hurricane season starts June 1st.
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