Republicans have swept every major Florida office from governor to agriculture commissioner. They’re on track for a supermajority in the state legislature. Given the party’s big showing this midterm cycle, can Florida still be considered a swing state?
“Florida is not a swing state. It’s a red state,” said Jon Ausman, the longest serving member of the Democratic National Committee in Florida history. “It might be a, not a pink - it’s more red than that—but it’s not a blazing, fire engine red state. We’ve got a lot of work to do if we want to make it more competitive.”
The state has been favoring Republicans for more than two decades. The party overtook Democrats in voter registration figures months ago and has enjoyed significant fundraising and election advantages after the once a decade redistricting process this year.
The sweep of state races is causing Democrats to once again rethink their approach to Florida politics.
“At the rate Florida is going, an NPA candidate for governor may have a better shot than a Democrat in 2026. It's that bad. Complete collapse. We either reset or go extinct,” tweeted Kevin Cate, a longtime media consultant who predominately works with Democratic candidates.
It’s not the first time the party is going back to the drawing board. It has suffered narrow losses in close state races for years, but this year’s blowout in the midterms is historic. Gov. Ron DeSantis got nearly 60% of the vote in his re-election bid to former Gov. Charlie Crist’s 40%, while Republican U.S. Senator Marco Rubio defeated Democratic Congresswoman Val Demings by 16 points. Election results are still considered unofficial until they go to the state for certification.
“It is no secret that last night was riddled with disappointment for Democrats in Florida. For decades, Republicans have done the work as they’ve built one of the most effective operations in the country. The other side has played the long game: prioritizing and investing in a statewide infrastructure with real depth and breadth, drawing favorable maps, implementing consistent, concise messaging – and it’s paid off as they have gained control at every level of government,” said Sen. Shevrin Jones, D-Miami-Dade, who now finds himself among a further diminished Democratic minority.
In a statement, Jones acknowledged his party has taken parts of the electorate, specifically Black ad Hispanic voters, for granted. Jones also lamented the lack of a consistent and coherent message to voters from his party, coupled with the disorganization and infighting that has plagued the party for years.
“Hardworking people in every corner of the state are understandably anxious about the property insurance crisis, stagnant wages that are lower than the national average, and skyrocketing rents,” Jones’ statement went on. “Rather than holding Republicans accountable for their failed economic policies and lack of vision that have brought us to this dire moment, the Democratic Party and its Leadership, myself included, have fallen asleep at the wheel, letting the GOP control the narrative and gain more electoral ground.”
The redrawing of legislative and congressional districts also helped Republicans grow their majorities after Gov. Ron DeSantis pressed state lawmakers to approve new maps he oversaw as part of the once-a-decade reapportionment process. Even in places that still appeared to favor Democrats in terms of numbers, Republicans like North Florida Senator-elect Corey Simon were able to score wins due to unexpectedly low Democratic voter turnout, compared to enthusiastic Republicans, said Ausman, who once led Tallahassee’s local Democratic party chapter.
Still, Jones isn’t giving up on the possibility that Democrats will eventually begin to win more statewide races, though he admits it’ll likely take a long time to get back there.
“We have to turn out our people. And the only way you do that is through engagement, empowerment, and making…sure you’re giving people something to vote for, not just to vote against," he said in a follow-up interview.
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