Early last week word got out that top U.S. officials had met with top Venezuelan officials in Caracas and, among other issues, discussed the possibility of lifting U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil. The reason: to help make up for the Russian oil imports President Biden has now banned to punish Russia for its brutal invasion of Ukraine.
Here in South Florida, the reports have sparked an emotional debate among Venezuelan exiles — not just about the Biden Administration's overture but about the larger question of whether the sanctions are really having the desired effect of dislodging Venezuela's authoritarian government.
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Admittedly, most reacted the way Miami business consultant and exile activist Beatriz Olavarria did:
“I mean, it’s uncomprehensible," she told WLRN. "It’s horrible for the heart of all Venezuelans. There’s no way to think about it as a good thing.”
There is no agreement yet about easing the sanctions, and some White House officials insist there was no genuinely substantive discussion of the matter in Caracas. But responses like Olavarria's are understandable.
In 2019 the U.S. imposed a de facto embargo on imports of oil from Venezuela — which has the world's largest crude reserves — to weaken the ultra-corrupt, dictatorial regime of Venezuela’s socialist leader, Nicolás Maduro. The U.S., along with much of the world, doesn’t recognize Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate president. He has been Russia's biggest cheerleader in Latin America during its Ukraine blitz.
Maduro is widely blamed for destroying Venezuela’s democracy and economy — and for forcing a fifth of the country’s population to flee abroad. U.N. investigators accuse his regime of crimes against humanity.
READ MORE: Guaidó Gambit 2.0: Exiles wrestle with Venezuelan leader's negotiation tack
So the thought of the U.S. easing up on Maduro alarms Venezuelan exiles like Olavarria.
“Don’t they know who they’re dealing with?" Olavarria asked about this month's Caracas sit-down. "It’s a high price to pay for oil. It just contradicts anything that goes against tyrants.”
Olavarria points out the sanctions the U.S. just imposed on Russia’s financial system also promised to hurt Maduro — who's been using Russian banks to get around U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil. So Olavarria asks: Why would the Biden Administration loosen the screws on Venezuela now?
“The amount of money [Maduro and regime officials] launder through Russia is enormous," Olavarria said.
She insisted that keeping sanctions on Venezuela while also penalizing Russia "would have been a big hit — and Maduro would have to crawl for some kind of way out. And that's the best moment yo have to put somebody down."
This should be the moment Maduro has to crawl to find some way out. Instead, it's the U.S. that looks desperate.Beatriz Olavarria
What’s more, Olavarria noted, Venezuela’s wrecked oil industry can only supply a fraction — perhaps a little more than half a million barrels a day — of what the U.S. imports.
“Where is the math?" she asked. "This agreement only would benefit Maduro. Instead it's the U.S. that looks desperate.”
EXPIRATION DATE
But, of course, three years after the sanctions took effect not all Venezuelan expats here see it that way.
One example is a podcast produced in Miami called “Pueblo People.” It’s hosted by two Venezuelans who came to Miami eight years ago: lawyer Raul Stolk, who also directs the online Venezuelan news site Caracas Chronicles, and Oswaldo Graziani, who co-directs a cannabis business here.
Stolk and Graziani are no fans of Maduro, and they insist they understand the hardline, no-negotiation stance of expats like Olavarria. Both felt pressured into exile — especially Graziani, who in Caracas ran a satirical website called El Chigüire Bipolar, or The Bipolar Capybara. It often mocks the socialist revolution — known as Chavismo for its late founder Hugo Chávez — that Maduro now heads.
“It’s a dystopian organization," Graziani said of the regime. "I don’t even know if it deserves to be called a government.”
"I've never not thought of it as a dictatorship," said Stolk.
Still, on their podcast last week, Graziani and Stolk agreed President Biden should consider relaxing Venezuelan oil sanctions.
Most political analysts say Maduro’s power in Venezuela looks even stronger today than it did three years ago. Stolk feels it’s time for a new approach to get the regime to concede democratic reforms — which would include releasing political prisoners and holding a new, credible presidential election. (Last week, after the Caracas meeting, Maduro released two Americans imprisoned in Venezuela.)
“We've come to a point where we realize that Chavismo — these guys aren’t going anywhere," Stolk said. "And if you’re looking for change, they have to be a part of that change.
"I know that's very difficult to swallow for a lot of people, but the sanctions process has expired — for democratic transition, y'know, it's failed."
I know it's hard for a lot of expats to swallow, but the sanctions process has expired — it's failed to produce a democratic transition in Venezuela.Raul Stolk
Because of that concern, Graziani, like many other expats, stresses he doesn’t want Venezuela’s political purgatory to drag out as long as it has for Cuba — which has been under a U.S. economic embargo for six decades.
“Do we really want to be Cuba or the Cuban opposition in Miami?" Graziani asked. "Both things don’t look good right now. It’s basically stalled and nothing’s happening.”
Stolk also fears frustrated Venezuelan exiles are making the same mistake many Cuban exiles have made by not listening to their countrymen still there. He says friends and relatives in Venezuela — who strongly oppose Maduro but are also suffering economically — tell him they don’t necessarily oppose the idea of Biden relaxing oil sanctions at this point.
“How many people who are in Venezuela right now see this approach and say, ‘Oh no, gringo go home!’" Stolk asked.
"We’re not hearing that. The loudest voices on this subject are people abroad.”
His podcast partner Graziani acknowledges, however, that it’s those Venezuelan exiles who vote here in Florida — and who have the ear of the state's members in Congress.
Last week, several of those lawmakers sent Biden a letter urging him not to buy Venezuelan oil to replace Russian oil.
