A large area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean Sea is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for potential tropical development over the next five days. While not currently a significant threat to the United States, there is growing interest in what happens to this potential development when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Conditions are not particularly favorable for a tropical cyclone to form in the next 48 hours, but that could change once it crosses through the Yucatan channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday or Monday. Atmospheric conditions there are forecast to become more favorable for a tropical depression to form. The sea surface temperatures are also quite warm, potentially further aiding in the system's development.
Long range forecast data is a bit split on two different scenarios (or outcomes) for this disturbance, ranging from just an area of tropical moisture and heavy rain to potentially a tropical storm. Therefore, it's far too early to speculate where this system might track or how strong it will be, and any forecasts related to potential impacts to Florida are just not credible at this time. However, it's worth noting that the Caribbean is usually a favorable location for tropical cyclone origins in October, and historically, when they move into the Gulf of Mexico, more than half of them cross the Florida peninsula. The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't officially end until November 30.
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