Melissa has officially become a hurricane, and it’s expected to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Wind shear has decreased significantly, allowing the storm to become vertically stacked; therefore, it’s expected to continue intensifying this weekend.
Some early outer rain bands from Hurricane Melissa starting to reach Jamaica. pic.twitter.com/OPOrukBlNc
— Sam Dienst (@samdienst) October 25, 2025
It is likely to become a major category hurricane by the end of Sunday. Melissa continues to move very slowly. It will continue moving mainly west at 3 mph at least until Monday, when the north turn is expected. Melissa’s latest track from the National Hurricane Center shows it will likely cross Jamaica as a major category four hurricane or possibly a category five hurricane. This would make the first major hurricane to hit Jamaica in known history. Jamaica’s eastern high terrain, the tallest peak of which is about 7,000 feet high, will likely put a dent in Melissa. But keep in mind the hurricane will be moving faster at this point, emerging over warm waters between Jamaica and Cuba and traveling to the north-northeast between Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning, before striking eastern Cuba, likely as a major hurricane or a powerful category two hurricane.
Jamaica's impacts - Residents must prepare now.
Jamaica will be devastated by the strong winds that could reach over 145 mph wherever the center makes landfall, and to the east of it. As violent winds sweep across the island, power outages will last for weeks, if not months. The rains will be heavy, and rain will come down hard. Remember that Melissa has been hammering down the central Caribbean all week, and it has been crawling. So many areas in Jamaica are already dealing with flooding, even before the hurricane officially strikes. There will be landslides, mudslides, and life-threatening storm surge.
The track shows that Melissa will enter over the southeastern portion of Santiago de Cuba. The provinces of Guantanamo and the eastern portion of Holguin should be paying close attention to this. Regardless, the eastern half of the storm will be the strongest; therefore, the provinces to the west of the center, although they will receive impacts, will likely see much less rain than the eastern tip of Cuba. Melissa will pick up speed and likely exit Cuba racing to the northeast.
The system is expected to cross the southern portion of the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday morning, then move over the open Atlantic and head northeast. This storm does not represent a threat to the United States. We continue to monitor the passage of cold fronts, which are also helping sweep any tropical storms away, as is the case with Melissa.
