Opinion: In Venezuela and Cuba, President Trump risks repeating the miscalculation he's made in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: thinking bold strikes automatically yield regime change.Iran’s response to the U.S. military strikes – the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, shutting down much of the world’s oil shipping with alarming ease – suggests Trump made a grand miscalculation. And, on the latest episode of Americas Decoded, WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett says it’s something that could define his legacy. That’s because he’s got two other potential Hormuz-shaped debacles developing in his own hemisphere: in Venezuela and Cuba.You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded.Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD.Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters.WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is 80 and running for re-election, an egotistical move that may open the door to another reactionary Bolsonaro presidency — this time the son's. The main candidate Lula will face in Brazil’s presidential elections in October is right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro — the 44-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula and his party should not wait for a late meltdown, like Biden’s cognitive catastrophe in the presidential debate of June 2024, to listen to the concerns about his age. You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded. Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD. Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters. WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: President Trump's bid to intimidate the Supreme Court on birthright citizenship risks reminding the justices — and the world — of the Dominican Republic's own thuggish repeal 13 years ago. Trump became the first sitting president to attend a Supreme Court hearing. But WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett says his crusade to end birthright citizenship has echoes of the DR, which not only cancelled birthright citizenship but made it retroactive in 2013 - a cruel and chaotic move seen as driven by racism, since it affected mostly Black Dominicans of Haitian descent. You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded. Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD. Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters. WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: Venezuela's first World Baseball Classic title win, against the U.S. in Miami, packed political symbolism — but, more importantly, also a joyful reminder of the country's character. Venezuela’s historic win in Miami, as the U.S. follows its removal of Nicolás Maduro with an unashamed focus on the country’s oil reserves rather than its democracy, could be read as a ‘screw you’ to the Trump administration. But for WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett, baseball reveals the best of Venezuela, so the victory was an uplifting reminder of the country’s character. You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded. Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD. Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters. WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: Cuban regime change may take more time and effort than expected. So Cuba’s exile command should try being diplomats - not demagogues. A U.S. oil blockade is pinning Cuba’s dictatorship against the wall. But on the latest episode of Americas Decoded, WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett says he fears Miami’s exile leaders may continue a historical habit of alienating folks who could help their cause. Case in point: the social-media sucker punch Republican Miami Congressman Carlos Gimenez threw at Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness at the recent CARICOM meeting. You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded. Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD. Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters. WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio seem to have tuned out Venezuelan and Cuban exile leaders — as well as their own rhetoric about blocking China's influence in the Americas.On the latest episode of Americas Decoded, WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett says that for all the Trump administration’s rhetoric about blocking China’s influence in the Americas, in both Cuba and Venezuela the U.S. is pushing scenarios that indulge in China’s m.o. — its hybrid system of capitalism and authoritarianism – and go against the principles of those exile communities.You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded.Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD.Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters.WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: As the U.S. cuts off global oil to Cuba, the island's communist regime could get President Trump to back off by offering something he's showing special interest in: dictatorship instruction. On the latest episode of Americas Decoded, WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett suggests that with his failed attempts to take control of U.S. elections, lock up political foes and use federal law enforcement to take over cities, Trump would welcome some tyranny tutoring from his more efficient Cuban counterparts. You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded. Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD. Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters. WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: President Trump may be following a brazen and brutish version of the Monroe Doctrine on issues like Greenland — but the world shouldn't be shocked that Monroe still lingers in U.S. policy. On the latest episode of Americas Decoded, WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett explains that the idea President James Monroe first laid out two centuries ago – in reaction to Europe’s colonial actions in the Western hemisphere – has always informed U.S. policy in the Americas. You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded. Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD. Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters. WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: President Trump's so-called "law enforcement" capture of Venezuela's dictator Nicolás Maduro will be regarded a failure if it doesn't mean democracy restoration — which may require more U.S. military force. On the latest episode of Americas Decoded, WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett warns that in Venezuela Trump may have removed the brutal dictator but he’s left the brutal dictatorship intact. The socialist regime’s top goons, led by acting President Delcy Rodríguez, remain entrenched in power, while Trump has sidelined opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. It’s a worrying sign that, unlike the country’s oil, a return to democracy in Venezuela is low on his agenda. You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on WLRN.org/Decoded. Subscribe to Tim’s Substack to receive his weekly digital commentaries and new episodes of Americas Decoded, at WLRN.org/AD. Sign up for his Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters. WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.

Opinion: President Trump and his deportation crusade. Nicolas Maduro and his disastrous dictatorship. Haiti’s gang confederation and its evil violence. As another year of migrant crisis in the Americas draws to a close – who was the cruelest leader of all? On the latest episode of Americas Decoded, WLRN’s Americas editor Tim Padgett t looks at the leaders most responsible for migrant misery and refugee wretchedness in the New World in 2025. Inspired by the monstrous Biblical figure King Herod, it’s time for his second annual Herod of the Hemisphere awards. You can watch the video for this and other Americas Decoded commentaries on WLRN’s YouTube channel on youtube.com/@WLRN or on WLRN.org/Decoded. You can read Tim’s digital commentary along with WLRN’s coverage of Americas news on WLRN.org/americas. Sign up for the Americas Report newsletter on WLRN.org/newsletters. WLRN is South Florida’s NPR member station.