DEBBIE ELLIOTT, HOST:
Israel and Iran traded military strikes overnight as tensions escalate between the two countries. Israel struck first on Friday, local time, targeting a range of military and nuclear sites inside Iran, killing several top security chiefs. Iranian state media report that subsequent strikes hit residential buildings in the capital city of Tehran. A barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles targeted Israeli cities overnight, including Tel Aviv, striking several sites there. Israel's defense minister warned that unless the missile attacks stop, then, quote, "Tehran will burn." Aaron David Miller is a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator. He is now senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is with us this morning. Good morning.
AARON DAVID MILLER: Morning, Debbie. Thanks for having me.
ELLIOTT: So let's start with what you make of the developments overnight.
MILLER: I mean, I think it's - the headlines, Debbie, are going to be the trend lines for the foreseeable future. The Israelis have established escalation dominance in the air. They spent two hours this morning striking targets in and around Tehran. And I suspect those strikes are going to continue, both against Iran's conventional sites, its ballistic missiles, its UAVs, its drones and its ballistic missile production facilities. And even though after a day and a half, the Israeli attacks on the nuclear site seem to not been the key priority, I think it's going to assume a greater importance in the days ahead.
ELLIOTT: So let's talk a little bit about Iran's nuclear facilities. What does this conflict mean for the country's nuclear program?
MILLER: You know, it - the Iranians have invested over time $5 trillion in this nuclear program, and they've chosen to remain a screwdriver's turn away from a nuclear weapon. It gives them regional reach. It gives them resonance. It makes them central to the conversation - the reality of Middle East. They've chosen not to weaponize. But as they've enriched uranium, as there's advanced centrifuges continue to spin, as the stockpile of highly enriched uranium grows, the danger of entering what one Israeli described as a zone of immunity in which no matter what the Israelis would do, Iran's capacity to weaponize relatively quickly - let's say, within a year - to actually produce a weapon, they need a physics package. They need to miniaturize the warhead. They need to deliver it.
It's become a program of national prestige, and perhaps now that the Israelis have tried to eliminate it - it's going to be very hard - it may actually incentivize, assuming the regime, assuming it's stable and continues to survive, to actually go for a nuclear weapon. So there's no good solution to this with the exception - and I'm not recommending this. I wish it would happen, but I think it's very hard to do - a new Iranian regime that is less acquisitive and doesn't want or need a nuclear weapon. And that's - that, to me, is a long way away.
ELLIOTT: Now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that the military operation will last as long as it takes. He's also calling on Iranians to rise up against their regime. What is Israel's endgame here?
MILLER: This is a really good question. You know, 18 months on after October 7, the prime minister wants total victory in Gaza. So I'd argue to you that a controlled level of escalation conflict is good for his politics. But what does he want in Iran? Total victory would mean the decimation and the eradication of Iran's nuclear program. Israeli military capacity, however extraordinary it's been - and it's demonstrated that over the last year against Hezbollah and against Iran - it doesn't have what is required to essentially try to eradicate the program. It may also - the Israelis may also want regime change. I think the prime minister's statement is encouraging Iranians to rise up as part of that strategy. Hard to do, though. Very hard to do.
ELLIOTT: Do you have a sense of how President Trump wants this to play out?
MILLER: Fascinating question. I mean, and the debate's going to continue until some adventurous journalist puts together a TikTok about what he actually said to Netanyahu. Did he try to dissuade him? Green light, red light, flashing yellow light. He didn't say no. So clearly, he wasn't prepared to stand in the way of what the Israelis wanted to do. And I think he cooperated in the ruse that the Israelis created in order to fool the Iranians into thinking that the strike would not occur until after this negotiating session - Oman, which is supposed to meet, probably won't - on Sunday. So I think he's riding the tiger now. He - I think he sees a real advantage. His MAGA base may not like it. He doesn't want to get drawn - doesn't want the U.S. to get drawn into a major war, but he sees some advantages right now in supporting the prime minister.
ELLIOTT: That's Aaron David Miller from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thanks so much for being with us.
MILLER: Thank you, Debbie. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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