The National Hurricane Center officially named Melissa on Tuesday at 11 a.m. The tropical storm will come to a crawl after racing over the Atlantic. The system is currently moving west at 14 mph, but it will slow down and likely stay over the same general area between Wednesday and at least Saturday, between Jamaica and Haiti.
This is an extremely worrisome forecast, as the system parks over the same areas for several days. There will likely be hefty rainfall over Jamaica and the Hispaniola through next weekend. Early rainfall forecasts indicate that Haiti and the Dominican Republic could receive between 8 and 12 inches of rain, particularly over the southern coast, through Saturday.
However, we know that the system will remain in the same area for a bit longer; therefore, we forecast that the southern regions of Hispaniola, including Santo Domingo and Port-au-Prince, could receive higher amounts, exceeding 14 inches. These amounts will trigger flash floods, landslides, and mudslides.
Tropical Storm #Melissa has formed in the central Caribbean - the first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or #hurricane) in the Caribbean this year. The last season with no named storm activity in the Caribbean was 1997. pic.twitter.com/1UlKMQp5BB
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 21, 2025
On Tuesday, the storm's tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. Melissa currently has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Still, the National Hurricane Center predicts that Melissa will become a hurricane by the end of the week or early in the weekend.
Rains could extend to Puerto Rico, where the western portions could receive up to 3 inches, and even as far south as Aruba, some areas of the island could receive 1 to 3 inches between Tuesday and Friday.
The Caribbean islands need to monitor the situation with Melissa closely. The system will intensify, and the lack of movement could turn fatal for many. Residents are urged to evacuate if instructed to do so. Tropical storm watches are in effect in Jamaica, and a hurricane watch is in effect for the southwestern portion of Haiti. These will likely turn into warnings by Wednesday night and through the rest of the week as the rains and winds intensify.
Melissa does not pose a threat to Florida, as fronts moving through the United States and Florida are expected to keep this system away. Nonetheless, we will continue to bring you updates throughout the week.
