About two-thirds of the U.S. is in some stage of drought in late spring 2026, yet at the same time the country has been seeing more intense downpours. It might seem contradictory, but both are symptoms of rising global temperatures. The reason has to do with the water cycle.

Days of rain across Florida as tropical moisture arrives and increases the flood threat.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said a looming El Niño weather pattern could help produce a below average season, but warned uncertainty about the forecast put the odds for a slow season at just 55%.

Forecasters believe a strengthening El Niño pattern is likely to emerge in 2026 and continue into winter, thus influencing temperature and precipitation trends across the United States.

Forecasters expect 8 to 14 storms will form in the Atlantic between June 1 and November 30. But the danger is more serious than the numbers suggest.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts below-normal activity as an impending El Niño will lead to increased wind shear across the basin.

Every year, Americans rely on accurate forecasts when hurricanes might be developing to know when to stock up on supplies, prepare for power outages or evacuate. Those forecasts have improved dramatically in recent decades, but the improvements can’t be taken for granted.

Florida’s rainy season doesn’t begin all at once, and it doesn’t behave the same way all summer. It tends to build across the state, then shift through three distinct phases.

The weather pattern changes in Florida as the rainy season starts. Rain is needed and welcomed.

During its annual storm drill, Florida Power & Light practiced rapid response for a mock Category 2 hurricane to keep customers in power during an extreme storm.