With La Niña conditions now present across parts of the Pacific, the developing pattern could play a role in shaping the weather during the final month of meteorological fall.
November in Florida is typically the driest month of the year and when the first frosts and freezes of the cool season reach the Interstate 10 corridor.
Based on climatology and the latest NOAA outlook, this year doesn’t appear that it’ll deviate much from those long-term norms encountered during previous La Niña events.
NOAA forecasters widely expect temperatures to remain near or above average, but the lack of precipitation will likely be the most noticeable feature as the month progresses.
The combination of ongoing dry conditions and additional rainfall deficits could further exacerbate the drought situation, especially along the Gulf Coast.
Currently, nearly 70% of the Sunshine State is classified as unusually dry, with a swath of the Panhandle considered to be in an extreme drought.
These dry conditions will likely set the stage for an active wildfire season in 2026, as chances quickly wane for any tropical system providing much needed precipitation.
On the temperature front, November is the month that sees the largest decline in both daytime highs and overnight lows.
For instance, the I-10 corridor typically sees highs in the mid to upper 70s to start the month, while areas along the I-4 corridor and further south often reach the 80s.
By the end of November, those averages fall by 3 to 8 degrees, with the most dramatic drops across northern Florida.
Beginning around Thanksgiving, high temperatures in the northern part of the state are generally stuck in the 60s unless there’s a late-autumn heat wave.
Around the same time of year, average low temperatures can range from the mid-40s in the Panhandle to the lower 70s in the Keys.
Despite the warmth, the disruption of the North Pole’s Polar Vortex - a large area of low pressure – can influence how significant cold snaps are, with freezing temperatures potentially reaching into Central Florida.
La Niña Novembers of the past
Since 2000, at least 11 Novembers have occurred during a La Niña pattern.
Historically, these months have been characterized by below-average precipitation and temperatures that are slightly above normal.
This overall pattern hasn’t been limited to Florida - most of the Lower 48 states have exhibited similar anomalies with temperatures and precipitation dating back decades, according climatological data.
There are a few exceptions - the Pacific Northwest often ends up cooler than average, while areas along the U.S.-Canadian border can see above-average precipitation.
NOAA meteorologists described this November’s outlook as more confident than in previous months, when tropical systems could have influenced the overall pattern.
Meteorological winter begins on December 1, with the shortest day of the year occurring on December 21.
Beyond the winter solstice, daylight will slowly increase again, but the added sunlight will do little to ease Old Man Winter, which typically peaks in January and early February.
