MEXICO CITY — The effects of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown can be seen at deserted Mexican border shelters, in the plummeting numbers of illegal crossings and at workplaces raided by federal agents.
But to get a glimpse of the alarm jolting Latin American immigrant communities in the United States, migrants, rights workers and experts say, follow the money.
“There is fear,” said Julio Fuentes, a 35-year-old migrant from Guatemala who entered the U.S. illegally and who works in California as a plumber. “Because if they catch you, then you can’t do anything. And they send you home with nothing.”
Over the last several months, the amount of money sent by migrants like Fuentes back to their native countries in Latin America has jumped by billions of dollars in total, according to financial institutions in the region. Migrants typically send a few hundred or a few thousand dollars at a time through cash at transfer shops or through digital methods.
Across several Central American nations money transfers have jumped 20%.
The reason, officials, migrants and analysts say, is that people afraid of being deported are trying to get as much money out of the country as possible, while they still can.
The money transfers, called remittances, are a critical lifeline for many countries and families around the world, especially in Central America and the Caribbean. There, the funds sometimes make up a huge chunk of a nation’s economy — as much as a quarter of a country’s gross domestic product, as in Honduras and Nicaragua.
While remittances to Latin America also come from countries like Canada and Spain, a large majority are sent from the United States.
Migrants are “sending their savings in remittances to be prepared if at any unknown time they’re deported and they can have that money here in Guatemala,” Álvaro González Ricci, president of the country’s central bank, said in June.
In four of Central America’s most populous and poorest countries — Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador — remittances so far this year are up roughly 20% from the same period last year, according to figures from central banks and an organization that coordinates among central banks, the Central American Monetary Council.
Other than during the aftermath of the pandemic, there have not been such large, year-over-year increases in remittances in the region for decades.
A 39-year-old Salvadoran woman, living illegally in Houston, said that she has increased her $1,500 monthly remittances to El Salvador by as much as $700 to support her two children, who are being cared for there by their grandmother.
Speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of deportation, the woman said she and other migrants were very fearful that Trump might act to seize or block their bank accounts.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment. During his 2016 campaign, Trump threatened to cut off billions in remittances unless Mexico provided payment for a border wall, and in his first term he limited transfers to Cuba.
Congressional Republicans have also targeted money transfers through a new tax on remittances they say will raise revenue and discourage illegal immigration. Trump signed the tax into law as part of a sweeping policy bill in July, and it is set to take effect next year.
Originally proposed by House Republicans at 5% on transfers, the tax was lowered to 1% for certain transactions after lobbying by financial firms and Latin American officials.
The spike in remittances is, for now, a boost to regional economies, especially for poorer families. But some experts expressed concerns. Remittances are often used to pay for basic needs rather than for savings, potentially fueling inflation. And the flow of money could stall, shrink or otherwise be disrupted if more migrants leave the United States or if the U.S. government takes further action on transfers.
“In the medium and long term, it is worrying,” said Hugo Noé Pino, vice president of the Honduran Congress and the former president of the country’s central bank.
In Honduras, a country of 10 million, remittances rose by 25% in the first seven months of this year compared with the same period last year — a $1.4 billion increase.
In Guatemala, with 18 million residents, remittances increased by 20% over that time compared to the same period in 2024 — a $2.4 billion spike.
“Those who do not have an immigration status believe that no one is safe in the country,” said Walter Batres, president of the Guatemalan Migrant Network in the United States, who first noticed a rise in remittances when Trump was elected in November. “It’s no longer an incredible fear like before, but rather panic.”
In Nicaragua, where record numbers of people have fled an authoritarian government in recent years, remittances were up 22% in the first four months of this year compared with last year — a $350 million jump.
In Haiti, a country suffering under gang violence, remittances jumped 27% in first half of this year, up nearly $500 million, compared with the same period last year, said Manuel Orozco, the director of the migration, remittances and development program at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based research group.
The data is not uniform across Latin America. Although Mexico is the world’s second-largest recipient of remittances ($68 billion in 2024), transfers have dropped nearly 6% in the first seven months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, according to central bank figures.
Data shows that remittances to Mexico were already slowing before Trump’s election in 2024, and analysts cited several possible factors.
Migrants who have recently arrived in the United States tend to send more money than those who have been in the country for many years — and many of the estimated 4.3 million Mexicans living in the United States illegally fall into the latter category. In recent years, Mexicans have also made up a smaller share of the Latin American migrants crossing into the United States illegally.
As a result, Mexico’s remittance-sending population is shrinking.
“The fear factor has been more pervasive in people who have arrived since 2018 to now,” Orozco said, referring to migrants from Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Haiti. People from those countries, he said, have been relatively more affected by deportations.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times. © 2025 The New York Times
