Now that President Trump has engineered a de facto blockade of oil shipments to Cuba, its communist government may be collapsing.
But so is its economy — and the humanitarian crisis may be the island’s worst in almost 70 years.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested Cuba can avoid greater catastrophe if the regime allows more economic as well as political freedom. That means taking the handcuffs off the country’s private sector — small businesses known as pymes — which Havana has significantly re-restricted in recent years after a short-lived breakthrough opening for those private enterprises five years ago.
This week the Trump administration seemed to boost that effort when it said the pymes may now import U.S. fuel. That includes Venezuelan oil being resold by American companies now that Washington all but controls Venezuela's crude reserves after last month's U.S. military capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro.
As a result, Cuban entrepreneurs like Aldo Alvarez — who runs Mercatoria, a private distributor of food and other products in Havana that employs scores of Cubans — are hoping for a new chance to show their capitalist enterprises can help alleviate the nation's suffering.
Alvarez spoke by WhatsApp this week from Havana with WLRN Americas editor Tim Padgett. Here are excerpts of their conversation:
READ MORE: Cuban capitalism is getting real. Cuban capitalists hope U.S. help will be just as real
PADGETT: Aldo, how bad are conditions for ordinary Cubans right now?
ALVAREZ: I think the best way to describe it is if you take all the other previous Cuban crises and put [them] together, all those crises [are not as bad] as this crisis. It is that bad.
People cannot cover all the necessities that they have. There is not enough food. They don't have enough energy, enough medicine. The garbage in the [street] corners growing every day. I don't know how much time this situation can stand.
[As for] private sector companies — everybody's closing. For example, my company is temporarily closed since last week, because we don't have a stable supply of oil and gas. If they will not have [a] solution in a short term period, it will be a massacre.
But the worst thing is that people don't have hope.
Marco Rubio's comments urging the Cuban government to allow more economic freedom — and now the Trump administration allowing private Cuban businesses to import U.S. oil — does that give Cubans some hope, especially the more than 11,000 pymes, or small businesses, that now exist in Cuba?
ALVAREZ: If, as consequence of that, let's say, conversation or negotiation, we as a private sector can have more rights, that's something to celebrate.
The Cuban private sector is always demonstrating that it's more capable, it's more efficient. We offer a better service — and we improve the Cuban economy.
"The Cuban private sector is always demonstrating that it's more capable, it's more efficient, we offer a better service — we improve the economy."Cuban entrepreneur Aldo Alvarez
For its part, earlier this month the Cuban government made it easier for private companies to buy fuel from abroad — good for a distribution business like yours — so do you expect it to lift even more restrictions now, like your access to wholesale goods and what kind of businesses you can own?
For the first time ever in my life, the [Cuban] private sector can import oil and gas. We are talking about oil and gas — we are not talking about chicken anymore. If we actually receive that, it would be a milestone for me.
So I'm pretty sure the Cuban government will allow the private sector to do more. Now, this has happened in the past: when they have [economic] problems, they start to get pragmatic. But, will what they do be enough to solve the situation? I don't know. In past moments we've receive new rights or rights — but then in a moment they stop, and they don't go further than that, or they take them back.
But Aldo, why do you feel the private sector is so important to helping Cuba out of this current crisis?
We cannot do magic. We need first that Cuba and the United States [make] some kind of stabilization deal. But — and this is very important to understand — the difference between the humanitarian crisis we are [currently] facing, and a total humanitarian crisis that we could face, is this private sector starting a supply chain again.
That brings me to the question of why Cuban exile leaders here in Miami seem very opposed to giving Cuba's private sector more help. What's your reaction when you hear them claim that Cuba's private sector is a myth, and that entrepreneurs like you are just agents for the communist government?
In some moment, Cuba has to be rebuilt. So in that moment, with whom you will do that? With whom? You have the government, maybe the [Roman Catholic] Church, and you have the private sector. In the economy, there is nobody else.
So we are necessary here to rebuild, to sustain, what's still standing in Cuba. And that's it. The Cuban private sector, we are the ones who are standing here for the people. We are the ones who have the seed to grow and to help rebuild Cuba in the future.
