U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and First Lady Casey DeSantis enjoy nearly identical leads in prospective one-on-one gubernatorial matchups versus Democrats David Jolly and Jerry Demings in a public opinion poll out Tuesday.
The survey of 728 likely voters by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows that Donalds leads Jolly by 11 percentage points, 45%-34%, with 17% undecided. Jolly is the only major Democrat to enter the race for governor.
The poll considered additional potential matchups for the 2026 gubernatorial election, which takes place in a little over a year.
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In a one-on-one contest between Democratic Orange County Mayor Demings (who has said he is considering entering the contest), Donalds leads by 12 points, 45%-33%.
Casey DeSantis, who has been floated as a candidate to succeed her husband Ron DeSantis but has never committed, leads Jolly by a slightly larger margin than Donalds’, 47%-34%. In a fantasy matchup against Demings, she leads 47%-36%.
The survey does not poll the chances of two other Republicans for governor, former House Speaker Paul Renner or Lt. Gov. Jay Collins. Renner entered the race last month and Collins is still considering getting in.
Donalds has the endorsement of President Donald Trump and has raised more than $31 million, dwarfing every other candidate.
“We’re still a year away from the midterm election, and there are quite a few undecided voters,” said Michael Binder, the poll’s faculty director and professor of political science. “At this point, it looks like both Republicans are more than 10 points ahead of whoever emerges on the Democratic side.”
Moody & Uthmeier with strong leadsIn the race for U.S. Senate, Republican Ashley Moody holds an 11-point lead over Jennifer Jenkins, the former Brevard County School Board member who entered the Democratic race for Senate last month, 49%-38%, with 10% undecided.
In the contest for Florida attorney general, Republican James Uthmeier, who like Moody was appointed to his seat and has never gone before the voters, leads Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez by nine points, 45%-36%, with 14% undecided.
“In both the Senate and Attorney General races, folks are generally voting along party lines. In a state that has gotten more red with every election cycle, Uthmeier and Moody have the added benefit of incumbency,” said Binder. “Moody likely enjoys a bit of extra name recognition, too, after gaining some national attention for replacing now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate.”
Respondents were also asked what they believe is the most important problem facing Florida. The top response was housing costs, with 14%, followed by property insurance (12%) and property taxes (11%). The economy and jobs were also high on the list with 11%, as were political division and polarization with 10%.
Constitutional amendment on property taxes would lose todayRegarding property taxes, an issue DeSantis has been campaigning on for months, the survey shows that there is not enough support to pass their elimination or reduction if introduced as a proposed constitutional amendment. The poll shows 49% support for eliminating property taxes for homeowners in Florida, with 43% against. Eight percent said they didn’t know. Constitutional amendments in Florida must win 60% support to become law.
On childhood vaccine mandates, the survey (like several others) shows that Floridians on the whole do not support eliminating them, as the DeSantis administration proposes. A total of 63% oppose the idea, with 48% strongly opposed. Thirty-four percent support removing vaccine mandates for children.
The Epstein filesThe poll asked Floridians if they think the U.S. Department of Justice should publicly release all the files associated with the Jeffrey Epstein case. An overwhelming majority said yes (83%). Nine percent said they should not and another 8% didn’t know.
When asked if they approved or disapproved of the Trump administration’s handling of the Epstein case, 32% expressed approval, either strongly or somewhat, and 57% disapproved. Respondents were asked how likely it is that President Donald Trump is criminally involved in the Epstein case, and 45% said it is at least somewhat likely and 43% unlikely.
The poll surveyed 728 likely voters over the phone from Oct. 15 to Oct. 25, with a margin for error of +/-4.25 percentage points.
