Tropical Depression Two forms, not a threat to Florida; forecast

On Saturday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center officially designated Invest 91L as Tropical Depression Two. Although conditions are not entirely favorable for this storm to intensify into a hurricane, it is possible that by Sunday afternoon, we could be talking about Tropical Storm Barry as it moves over the Bay of Campeche. Wind shear will remain in place, limiting its intensification. There is plenty of warm water over the Gulf, which serves as fuel for this system to continue to gain better structure on Sunday.

This system is moving slowly west-northwest and is expected to make landfall in Mexico by Monday afternoon, specifically over the state of Tamaulipas. It is expected to bring torrential rains to northeastern Mexico, but rain bands will also impact the Texas Coast starting on Sunday.

Saharan Dust in place

Tropical Depression Two, or future Tropical Storm Barry, will not have any impact on Florida. A strong high-pressure system over the Sunshine States will prevent this storm from moving toward us. The southern half of the state is under a layer of Saharan dust, which is expected to limit the risk of showers and thunderstorms, particularly over the southeast coast. Any storms that develop will be confined across the interior and over the west coast of Florida.

The Saharan air will gradually dissipate, and starting Tuesday, the winds will shift, allowing storm formation to more closely align with the typical summer-like pattern. The sea breeze will ignite storms over interior areas, and some storms will also move toward the coast by late afternoons. There could also be slightly higher-than-normal thunderstorm activity, as a trough or low-pressure system in the upper levels will be traveling over the state around midweek, which could bring more storm activity, allowing some storms to turn severe and produce damaging winds and hail.