After a generally mild winter across much of the United States, with colder conditions confined to portions of the Eastern Seaboard, climate patterns are expected to shift as a weakening La Niña transitions toward neutral conditions, leading to impacts on the weather during meteorological spring.
According to an outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the evolving pattern could help set the stage for warmer-than-average temperatures across the southern tier of the nation, including Florida, during the spring season.
Precipitation totals across the state are expected to range from near normal to below average, continuing the long-running drought.
NOAA places the probability of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions at around 60% through the end of April, with even greater chances during the summer.
Spring marks the fastest warming stretch of the year across the state, with average temperatures typically rising by about 15 degrees from early March through the final weeks of May.
The season also marks the arrival of the first 90-degree temperatures of the year across parts of the state, particularly south of the Interstate 4 corridor.
Rainfall during the spring months can vary widely depending on passing frontal boundaries, but increased precipitation would be beneficial this year as all 67 counties contend with drought conditions that developed during 2025 and have persisted into 2026.
Seasonal drought outlooks indicate that existing drought conditions are expected to intensify in some areas during the coming weeks.
Recent assessments show that nearly 68% of Florida is experiencing extreme drought conditions, with some communities nearing exceptional drought status - the most severe category of drought.
Prolonged stretches of rainfall deficits increase the risk of wildfires and puts a strain on local water resources.
Many counties have already instituted burn bans and utilities have warned of increased water restrictions if the lack of rainfall continues.
Forecasters note that spring outlooks are some of the more challenging forecasts because computer models often struggle to accurately project changes in ocean heat patterns and weather patterns across the tropical Pacific.
These forecasting difficulties are commonly referred to as the “spring predictability barrier,” a period when ENSO transitions occur differently than what forecast models projected, leading to unexpected weather extremes.
