The National Hurricane Center has issued advisories for the Atlantic Basin. Potential Tropical Cyclone One has officially been designated, allowing the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for the Texas coast and portions of Louisiana.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located over land in South Texas. The system is forecast to briefly move over the waters adjacent to the Texas coastline, which could allow it to develop a closed circulation center. If this occurs, it would officially become a tropical depression and could later strengthen briefly into a tropical storm. Should that happen, it would become the first named tropical system of the season: Arthur. Climatologically speaking, the first named tropical system of the Atlantic hurricane season typically forms by June 20.
Much of Texas and parts of the Deep South have received significant rainfall as a stationary boundary has slowly moved across the region. In addition, abundant tropical moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico has aided the development of showers and thunderstorms. The low-pressure system developed over northern Mexico and has meandered there for several days. As the weather pattern becomes more progressive, this low-pressure system is moving northeast and is expected to continue drawing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, affecting much of southeast Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
June 16: Tropical Update on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. For more information visit https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/cp4iHzLX0b
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 16, 2026
Regardless of whether the system receives a name, periods of heavy rainfall are expected from Texas through Mississippi and Alabama, and possibly into the western Florida Panhandle this week.
As of Tuesday afternoon, several Flood Watches are in effect from South Texas through the southern half of Mississippi. Additionally, the NOAA Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a risk for flash flooding extending from South Texas through western Georgia, including much of the Florida Panhandle. This threat is expected to persist across many of these areas through much of the week.
At this time, we are not expecting any direct impacts from this system, even if it becomes a named storm. The system will likely move inland over Louisiana while continuing to pull abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help fuel numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Deep South, including the Florida Panhandle, during the second half of the week.
Rainfall forecast for the Florida Panhandle
Over the next five days, from Tuesday through Sunday night, the highest rainfall totals are expected across the western Florida Panhandle. Some areas could receive more than 8 inches of rain. Overall, rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are possible from the Pensacola area eastward toward the western portions of Tallahassee along the Interstate 10 corridor.
For the remainder of the Florida Peninsula, we are not expecting any impacts directly associated with this system. Rain and thunderstorm activity will primarily be driven by local effects, such as afternoon sea breeze development. Thunderstorms should remain mainly focused across the interior and eastern portions of the state.
Winds will become more westerly, and once the sea breeze develops, it will help trigger thunderstorm activity that moves inland before retreating toward the East Coast during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will also feel warmer across interior areas and along the East Coast due to the prevailing west-southwesterly flow.
