In the face of one of Latin America’s most brazen cases of electoral fraud, Venezuelans and the international community are grappling with how to address the ongoing crisis in this South American nation.
In the July 28 presidential election, despite exit polls showing a large victory for opposition candidate Edmundo González, Venezuela’s National Electoral Council declared President Nicolás Maduro the winner, 51-44% — even though they have yet to produce voting tallies to prove he won.
The government has since, however, arrested hundreds of opposition supporters who took to the streets in the days after the disputed poll, and the president and his cadres have threatened to lock up opposition leader, María Corina Machado and González, her hand-picked presidential candidate.
Machado, who has been barred by Maduro's government from running for office for 15 years, had been in hiding since Tuesday, saying her life and freedom are at risk. Masked assailants ransacked the opposition’s headquarters on Friday, taking documents and vandalizing the space. González remains in hiding.
Two experts on Venezuela appeared Friday on WLRN’s South Florida Roundup with Tim Padgett to discuss the contested election, the international community’s response and what lies ahead for Venezuela.
Eduardo Gamarra, a longtime expert on Latin America and political science professor at Florida International University, characterized Maduro’s election theft “as the most egregious” in at least six decades, citing the regime’s blatant disregard for democratic norms and the role of modern technology in exposing their deceit.
“It is just brazen,” Gamarra told WLRN. “In past elections, the results were much closer and, therefore, they were able to kind of hide their fraud, but this time, they just simply couldn't and that's why they have to go through extreme lengths now, probably to make up the results.”
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Maria Alejandra Márquez, who leads the Venezuelan Asset Recovery Initiative, said the opposition, along with the Venezuelan diaspora and activists, risked their lives to document the fraud — and now face a Maduro regime determined to dash off democracy to stay in power.
“It is unclear what's going to happen because the repression is so hard on people,” said Márquez. “There are direct threats against journalists, direct threats against citizens who had participated in the voting.”
“A lot of people would say that Venezuelans are innocent in having pursued this election, knowing that Maduro was going to commit fraud,” added Márquez. “But I think against tyranny you have to keep trying, and having the backing of the international community is certainly an incentive for Venezuelans to keep fighting.”
The Biden administration has thrown its support firmly behind the opposition. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken released a statement Thursday citing "overwhelming evidence that González was the victor and discrediting the National Electoral Council’s official results. González posted a message on X thanking the U.S. “for recognizing the will of the Venezuelan people.”
Maduro said Friday that the U.S. should stay out of Venezuela’s politics.
There has been a flurry of diplomatic efforts by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico — albeit a cautious stance — to convince Maduro to allow an impartial audit of the vote. The three countries abstained from a vote at the Organization of American States to demand Maduro hand over the vote tally sheets.
On Thursday, the governments of the three countries issued a joint statement calling on Venezuela’s electoral authorities “to move forward expeditiously and publicly release” detailed voting.
Gamarra told WLRN that all three countries may be motivated by their own geopolitical and migration concerns. “Brazil and Colombia have some other motives to want to be mediators,” noting both countries will likely see a new wave of migrants crossing the border.
Márquez highlighted the dire humanitarian impact of Maduro’s regime, noting that Venezuela’s economic collapse and rampant corruption have led to extreme poverty and scarcity of basic necessities. The situation has prompted millions of Venezuelans to flee, adding to the strain on neighboring countries and the U.S.
Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2014, the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history.
“You have to imagine trying to live with a basic income of $4 a day,” said Márquez. “And in Venezuela, there is even inflation in dollars, which was something that was never seen in the past — so it's a really hard life, unless you're definitely connected with some sort of business related to the government.”
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Indeed, Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest proven crude reserves and once boasted Latin America’s most advanced economy, but it entered into a free fall marked by 130,000% hyperinflation and widespread shortages after Maduro took the helm in 2013. U.S. oil sanctions have only deepened the misery, and the Biden administration — which had been easing those restrictions — is now likely to ramp them up again unless Maduro agrees to some sort of transition.
As the international community debates how to respond, the prospect of mass civilian uprisings and increased repression remains a looming threat. Márquez noted that Venezuelans are prepared to continue their fight for democratic change, but the outcome is uncertain given the regime’s current tactics to squash the opposition.
Gamarra and Márquez agreed that diplomatic pressure is essential to helping a peaceful transition of power, but say the situation isn’t likely to improve anytime soon.
Said Gamarra: “The fact that the [election] fraud scheme did not work requires them to find other justifications. [The Maduro regime] is cracking down and they're following a model … to round up a lot of people, jail them, and put them in the worst prison camps in Venezuela. Unfortunately, the situation in Venezuela is going to get much much worse before it gets any better.”
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
You can listen to the full conversation above or wherever you get your podcasts by searching: The South Florida Roundup.
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