The flow of new Floridians slowed down a lot in the past year. The torrid population growth the Sunshine State experienced in the years right after the COVID-19 pandemic has given way to something else.
" I would say it's more a normalization," said Sheridan Morby, senior research economist at the Florida Chamber Foundation.
Florida’s population grew by more than 500 people a day last year. That is a sharp slowdown from the last couple of years and the slowest annual growth this decade.
"The primary reason for that slow down is the significant decline in international migration," said Maria Ilcheva, associate director of the Metropolitan Center at Florida International University.
For years, the main contributor to Florida’s surging population was people moving here from someplace else in the U.S. That shifted in 2023 when most new Floridians were coming to the Sunshine State from other countries.
In the year ending in July, Census Bureau data show nine out of 10 people moving to Florida came from overseas. While the proportion of international migrants jumped, the total number plunged, as did the number of people moving from other states.
The slowdown in people moving to Florida comes as the Trump administration launched its immigration enforcement effort and the state wrestles with affordability challenges.
" We know they're coming from high cost states like New York and California. We're starting to see Texas and Georgia up there as well in terms of who's migrating into the state," said Morby.
Not enough babies
Florida’s population totaled almost 23.5 million people in this latest Census estimate. That was up about 200,000 people from a year earlier. Without that migration from other states and from overseas, the state’s population would actually be shrinking.
Floridians are not making enough new Floridians. Residents are not having enough babies to make up for the number of Floridians dying. That’s been the case for at least the past five years. It means Florida's population growth has been entirely outsourced to people moving to the state.
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" Economic growth is dependent on population growth," said Ilcheva. "There is a direct correlation. [If] your population stops growing that means less consumption, less demand for services and goods. There is a negative snowball effect if that is to happen from a labor force perspective, particularly for our state."
The Census Bureau called the drop in migration nationwide "historic" in a press release. It was more than halved in one year and the agency expected it to fall another 75% this year. It pointed to the twin forces of fewer people migrating to the U.S. and more people moving out of the country.
Morby credited changes to the Census Bureau's methodology for much of the swing. The bureau did update how it estimates how many people move and where within the U.S. It also made adjustments to benchmarks for international migration estimates.
In 2024, there were more than 400,000 people from overseas moving to Florida. Last year, that had dropped to just 178,000 people — a decline of 56%.
Ilcheva said the slowdown in international migration was not unexpected due to "the policies that we have at the federal level to some extent in the state, but the size of that decline and what it means for our long-term economic growth certainly raises important questions."
Despite the sharp slowdown, Florida welcomed more new residents from overseas than any other state and ranked second in total population growth.
" When we're talking about population growth," Morby said, "what matters there is how it's fueling our economy and if our economy can support that growth. We're seeing that historically, it has been supporting that growth."
Some of the slowest growth over the past four years has been with important ages for the state’s economy — people in their late 20s. That’s traditionally an age when people start families and buy their first homes. The state’s public and private university system helps attract students in their early 20s, but keeping them after graduation remains a challenge.
" What's the pipeline between them seeing Florida as a state where it's valuable to get to get an education and then do they stay here and work here?" said Morby. "A lot of that is the connection between the education they're getting and the jobs that are available."
Florida’s cost of living is also playing a role. The state’s population of people in their late 50s actually declined between 2020 and 2024. But while folks approaching retirement may be leaving, retirees continue flocking here. The fastest growing group of new Floridians are those over 75 years old.
"That creates challenges for healthcare systems that may not necessarily be adopted for that big influx that they're experiencing now," noted Ilcheva.
The last time Florida’s population got smaller was in 1946, the year after World War II ended and large numbers of military servicemen and women left the state.
