A behind-schedule and weak La Niña expected to emerge in December will set the stage for a warmer, drier winter across South Florida.
The weather pattern that can help fuel hurricanes was initially forecast to appear in August, but stayed dormant while the climate hovered in a neutral position. Forecasters now say the slow-forming pattern is also expected to be short-lived and end by early spring, Robert Molleda, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Miami office, said in a briefing this week.
“So warmer and drier from now all the way through April. In fact, the models are indicating that it's possible that the February to April period could tilt a little drier,” he said.
La Niñas typically push the jet stream further north, which means South Florida can also expect less stormy weather.
Coming on the heels of a yearlong, wetter El Niño pattern, the region is in good shape for water supply, but water managers are still keeping an eye on Lake Okeechobee, the primary dry season source for freshwater.
The Army Corps, which manages lake levels, will allow the lake to recede to help it recover from high wet season levels that can harm wildlife, said Maj. Cory Bell, district deputy commander for the Corps’ Jacksonville District. Under a new lake management plan started in August and issued after repairs were completed to the aging Herbert Hoover Dike, the lake can hold water higher. But the plan also calls for better management to eliminate harmful discharges and protect shallow marshes that border the lake and provide habitat for fish and wading birds.
“As we move forward in the dry season, we're looking at lake recovery operations, and we will communicate that with our stakeholders,” he said.
The Corps has been under fire by sugar growers and local utilities who want to higher lake levels for water supply. in 2021 they sued the Corps, arguing that an Everglades reservoir now under construction threatens that supply and violates the 2000 Everglades Restoration law that guaranteed work would not lessen their water supply. That clause, however, applies only to carrying out restoration work and not lake management, a federal judge said in a 2023 ruling in favor of the Corps. The ruling is now under appeal.
In the meantime, South Florida Water Management District officials say with a rainy season delivering about 120% of normal rainfall, water restrictions look unlikely. Lake modeling indicates levels should remain in a “sweet spot,” said district engineer Matahel Ansar.
“So that's really a good thing when we have levels this high into the dry season. We should be in good shape as far as water supply,” he said.
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