Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened slightly overnight as it approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Top sustained winds are near 60 mph as of the 5 am update from the National Hurricane Center.
Meteorologist Ray Hawthorne says confidence is increasing that Dorian will affect Florida late this weekend as a strengthening hurricane.
"Dorian may briefly reach hurricane status before reaching Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands. It could weaken briefly as it moves over those islands tonight. However, more and more of the models are forecasting an environment favorable for Dorian to strengthen into a hurricane before approaching Florida later on Sunday," said Hawthorne.
In their 11 pm update Tuesday, forecasters expressed a notable increase in confidence that Dorian would intensify over the warm Atlantic waters east of the Bahamas Friday, before turning west toward the peninsula over the weekend. This was despite the possibility that Tropical Storm Dorian weakens some Wednesday and Thursday from land interactions with the island of Puerto Rico.
Although confidence has grown on a track toward Florida, Hurricane Specialist Richard Pasch said uncertainty with regards to the intensity forecast remains “higher than usual”.
“[It’s] problematic because of a significant spread in the model guidance and some run-to-run inconsistencies,” Pasch wrote in his Tuesday evening forecast discussion.
The forecast data Richard speaks of has been trending in the direction toward a stronger storm than the Hurricane Center is willing to explicitly show at this time, which he also noted. This is likely due to the uncertainties that remain while the cyclone is moving through the northeast Caribbean.
As of Wednesday morning, potential landfall from Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Dorian is still more than 100 hours away. There is never a bad time to prepare. However, some Floridians now might have a preparation deadline as it relates to this storm.
The most important thing you can do now is to stay informed and finish your hurricane plan. If you feel overwhelmed, or don't know where to start, we've created a page of helpful tips to get you started.
