The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Forecasters have predicted an El Niño season, where there could be fewer-than-average storms this season.
According to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, last year was a relatively quiet season for the Southeast. There were 13 named storms — near the long-term average — but no hurricanes made direct landfall in the United States.
But is forecasting in the spring an accurate picture for the whole season?
On "The Florida Roundup," John Morales — NBC 6 South Florida hurricane specialist and lead certified consulting meteorologist at ClimaData — as well as former Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator Craig Fugate, provided some insight into some questions you may have about the season.
Here's what to know.
What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña?
According to the National Weather Service, these are opposite extremes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is warmer than normal tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, while La Niña is cooler than normal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, trade winds weaken during El Niño. Trade winds move from east to west. But for our purposes in the Atlantic, this creates higher wind shear. This helps suppress activity in the Atlantic basin, but it implies stronger activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins.
During La Niña, trade winds are stronger than usual, and the climate pattern can also lead to a more severe hurricane season for us.
You can learn more about the differences on NOAA's website.
Is hurricane forecasting in the spring an accurate picture for the entire season?
On "The Florida Roundup," meteorologist John Morales said that although we can anticipate an El Niño forming this year, you should still be cautious about your expectations for the season overall.
"Especially because the forecasts for these types of phenomena, whether it's an El Niño and La Niña, that are issued in the spring tend to be sometimes not entirely accurate," Morales told host Tom Hudson. "I think we can be confident that there will be an El Niño forming, but the strength of it, let's hold off until we get better modeling further in the summer."
Morales added that the forecasting later in the summer will give more confidence in what will unfold in the latter half of the season. Peak hurricane season tends to be around Sept. 10.
He said it's still important to be cautious and prepared this season, as it only takes one storm to create devastation.
Since El Niño/La Niña happens over the Pacific Ocean, how does that influence what's happening and coming off the coast of Africa or perhaps forming in the Gulf?
Morales explained that what happens is you have an accumulation of very warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It's in a spot where the upwelled water comes from the Antarctic and tends to be cold. This is the normal condition.
When you flip it to a warm condition, Morales explained how you have a warm sea surface. The air in contact with the warm ocean water becomes less dense because it's warmer and then becomes buoyant. It ascends and then creates showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Pacific. For example, places like Ecuador and Peru.
"All that air that's rising in thunderstorm activity that's developing in that part of the world, once it reaches the upper levels of the atmosphere, it's got to go somewhere, and it gets to that level and it diverges, it heads out in all directions, including air that's come from west to east, that is going to enhance the westerly winds aloft across the Caribbean, across the Gulf of Mexico, and that's where you tend to get suppressed hurricane activity."
What's the difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning?
Hurricane watch:
According to the Florida Division of Emergency Management, when a watch is issued, it means conditions are possible in the area within 48 hours.
This should trigger your disaster plan and proactive measures should be taken — especially those that take more time — like securing a boat or leaving a barrier island.
Hurricane warning:
When a warning is issued, this means conditions are expected in the area within 36 hours.
Once this is issued, you should be in the process of completing proactive actions and deciding the safest location to be during a storm.
How do you know if you should stay or evacuate before a hurricane hits?
If your home is not located in an evacuation zone, you could shelter at home during a storm.
To find your evacuation zone and potential shelter locations across Tampa Bay counties, click here.
ALSO READ: Here's how to find your hurricane evacuation zone across Florida
If you hunker down, stay inside, away from windows and exterior doors. Do not leave your home until officials say it is safe to do so.
What documents should you have on hand during an emergency?
Below is a list of important documents you should make sure are all kept in a waterproof container:
- Insurance cards
- Medical records
- Banking information
- Credit card numbers
- Copies of Social Security cards
- Copies of birth and/or marriage certificates
- Other personal documents
- Set of car, house and office keys
- Service animal I.D., veterinary records and proof of ownership
- Information about where you receive medication, the name of the drug and dosage
- Copy of will
ALSO READ: From supplies, pets, to applying for FEMA assistance: Answering common hurricane-related questions
What's FEMA's role when it comes to hurricanes?
Former FEMA administrator Craig Fugate said that some people think of FEMA as the first responder, but it's not. He said in most cases, it's about reimbursement in the aftermath since the agency provides disaster assistance.
"What you really want to be talking about is Florida Division Emergency Management, your county emergency management, the Florida National Guard, because those are the folks that are going to be there first, and that team hasn't changed," Fugate said. "I don't worry about what FEMA is going to do, and I think if you talk to most emergency managers, they're more worried about the money."
Although the local and state agencies are the primary personnel during an emergency, FEMA is the lead agency in helping people "before, during and after disasters," according to its website.
How do you apply for FEMA assistance?
Depending on the disaster declaration, you can potentially apply for FEMA assistance. According to the FDEM, here are the different ways you can apply:
- Online
- Using the FEMA mobile app
- Call FEMA at 800-621-3362 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Multilingual operators are available. If you use a relay service, such as video relay service (VRS), captioned telephone service or others, give FEMA the number of that service.
- Temporary FEMA disaster recovery centers may open in hurricane-affected areas. Check the FEMA app or visit the FEMA DRC Locator to find the locations and hours of operation.
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