A tropical wave that has moved off the coast of Africa since yesterday has a very good chance of strengthening through next week. The disturbance has recently been producing disorganized showers and storms as it moves slowly westward. Conditions are favorable for continued development into a possible depression after this weekend as it enters warmer waters. The National Hurricane Center gives the wave a 50% chance to keep developing for their 7-day outlook.
Most tropical models strengthen the disturbance through mid-next week, then turn it northward into the open waters of the North-Central Atlantic. This wave will need to be closely monitored since it’s still in the early stages of development and there is much uncertainty with the track and intensity. A more westward track into the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean is still very much on the table.
Although this wave will be moving through the overall Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic hurricane season, this not the most likely area during June. Only 6% of all tropical systems form in June, and of the storms that do evolve, the majority form in the Gulf of Mexico. El Nino has officially kicked in this season which historically decreases tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin. However, historically warm sea surface temperatures across the MDR that are already in place, may continue to enhance development the next several months.
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