Gov. Ron DeSantis is calling for lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map, which could help the GOP take more seats in the midterms.
But Democrats recently won two state legislature races, sounding the alarm for Republicans’ prospects — and potentially changing the calculus for potential redistricting in Florida.
Brian Nathan flipped a Tampa state Senate seat. And Emily Gregory flipped a House seat a Republican won by 19 points just two years ago. That district includes President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago.
“My opponent put President Trump at the forefront of his messaging,” Gregory said. “The endorsement was on most of his literature. For me, it was about talking about the issues that affect all of us and not one single most famous constituent.”
Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, sees a national trend.
“These flips in Florida were our 29th and 30th flip of this election cycle already,” Williams said. “State legislative candidates are defying odds across the country, because they're laser focused on affordability.”
She said it’s not just affordability concerns driving the success.
The party outside of the White House usually does well in the midterms. But Williams said President Donald Trump’s low polling numbers give Democrats a unique opportunity to pick up state legislative seats.
“We're really excited about taking advantage of this once in a generation opportunity and working really hard to win the vote of Americans across the country and putting Democrats in meaningful positions of power everywhere,” Williams said.
The results could influence what comes next in Florida: a possible redistricting effort that could help determine which party controls Congress after November.
DeSantis has set a late April special session to possibly rework Florida's congressional map.
Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political science professor, said the recent special elections could make Republicans think twice.
“I think they're still going to look into it,” he said. “They still might even do it, but I will bet that it will not be quite as aggressive as it would have been."
The catch is that when a party redraws voting lines to capture seats, it can make the safe seats they already hold more competitive.
"It's possible you end up with, instead of a gerrymander, what we might call a dummymander,” Jewett said. “You've tried to help yourself, but instead, you've ended up hurting your own party and you lose seats."
Some Florida Republican members of Congress have expressed doubts about redistricting. And U.S. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said a Florida map change would help Democrats win seats.
But Evan Power, the chair of the Republican Party of Florida, warned against reading too much into the results.
"I think what we've become very good at as Republicans is voting in regular election cycles,” he said. “We're not particularly great at these special elections. But that doesn't mean anything come November, when all our voters are going to turn out like they normally do, and we're going to rack up big wins."
He said there’s quote “clearly room” for the Legislature to redistrict and for the GOP to pick up some seats.
On Monday, DeSantis doubled down on wanting to redistrict.
He and other state leaders have cited a pending U.S. Supreme Court decision on a Louisiana redistricting case as a reason to change the map. That case could change how race factors into drawing political boundaries.
But the decision hasn’t come yet.
Regardless, DeSantis said he believes the case will be decided in favor of Florida’s redistricting.
And he had another reason for a map change: how dramatically the state population has changed since the last census in 2020, even though the map would have to be crafted using that older population data.
It’s unknown what exactly lawmakers will want to do when the special session starts on April 20.
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This story was produced by WUSF as part of a statewide journalism initiative funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
