A month after Florida Democrats scored upset victories in two special legislative elections, a new survey shows their top candidates for statewide offices are either in a statistical tie or leading against GOP opponents.
The survey of 1,834 like Florida voters conducted by two Miami Democratic consulting firms suggests that President Donald Trump’s increasing unpopularity is spurring non-party-affiliated (NPA) voters to move heavily towards Democratic candidates in some of the biggest races on the ballot in November.
“What we’re seeing in Florida is not unlike what we’re seeing across the country,” said Christian Ulvert, a longtime Democratic consultant and founder of EDGE Communications. “The environment is shifting in real time, and Democrats are clearly energized and galvanized in this moment.”
In the governor’s race, David Jolly is now in a statistical tie with GOP U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds in a presumptive one-on-one matchup, with with Donalds getting 41.2% of support to Jolly’s 40.5%. Another 18% remain undecided. (Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, Jolly’s top opponent in the Democratic primary, was not included in the survey.)
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In the race for U.S. Senate, GOP incumbent Ashley Moody is barely ahead of Democratic retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, with Moody getting 43.4% to Vindman’s 42.2%, with 14% undecided. (The other major Democrat in that race, Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon, was not included in the poll.)
The survey was conducted in all 10 Florida media markets, with 100 people responding in Spanish, with a margin for error at +/- 2 points.
Michael Worley is president and CEO of MDW Communications, which conducted the poll with EDGE Communications. He said the polling in the Senate race shows a clear generational gap, with Vindman leading by 18 points over Moody with voters between the ages of 25 and 34 (44%-26%) and with 8% with voters between the ages of 35 and 49 (45%-37%).
And in perhaps the most remarkable result of the poll, in the state attorney general race, former Democratic state Sen. José Javier Rodríguez is leading Republican incumbent James Uthmeier, 42.8% to 39.6%.
The Democrats’ success in a House seat and a Senate seat last month were fueled by big-time support by NPA voters, who are moving towards Democrats “in numbers that we have not seen in decades,” Ulvert said.
That was certainly the case in the special legislative elections held in Palm Beach and Hillsborough County on March 24. That’s when Democrat Brian Nathan defeated Republican Josie Tomkow in a state Senate seat won by a Republican by nearly 10 points in 2022, and where Tomkow outspent Nathan roughly 10-1.
Similarly, in the House 87 district in Palm Beach County where Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence is located, Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in a seat won by a Republican in 2024 by 19 points.
“What we know as Democrats — it’s our job to put forward candidates who are clear in their vision, have a pragmatic approach, and most importantly have the ability to inspire, and, as they do that, voters are responding very well,” said Ulvert.
The movement among NPA voters isn’t new, dating to the two special congressional elections held on April 1, 2025. That’s when Republicans held on to the two seats on the ballot, but their Democratic opponents cut their losing margins by half, he said.
And he noted that, despite her loss to Republican Jimmy Patronis in Florida’s First Congressional District, Democrat Gay Valimont did win Escambia County, long considered as red as it gets in North Florida.
More Republicans than Democrats polled in survey
Although the survey was conducted by two Democratic-leaning firms, Martin Page with MDW Communications said that of the 1,834 voters surveyed, 44% were registered Republicans, 34% were registered Democrats, and 22% were either registered as NPAs or with other political parties. That’s close to the official breakdown of voter registration in Florida — 41% Republicans, 30% Democrats, and 29% of NPAs or other parties.
And Page said the methodology was designed to ensure inclusion of more conservative-leaning NPA voters in the survey.
“We know from past polls that NPA poll respondents tend to be more liberal than your average NPA,” he said on a Zoom conference call.
By securing access to the Democratic National Committee’s advanced super score modeling of voters, “we sent our survey in our sampling to more conservative-leaning NPAs than we did to more liberal-leaning NPAs to try to correct for a liberal response bias among NPA voters.”
The poll suggests the idea of eliminating or substantially reducing the homestead property taxes isn’t a surefire political winner.
The survey shows a majority — 55% either strongly or somewhat — support the concept, with just 31% opposing. However, any referendum would need 60% support for passage.
And, after voters were asked whether they wanted to keep property taxes at “appropriate” levels while still protecting essential services such as police, fire, parks, and clean water, 60% said yes while 39% maintained that all property taxes should be eliminated, even if parks, police, fire, and roads were no longer funded.
(Note that the Florida Republicans who are pushing to reduce property taxes have said so far that they do not intend to cut funding for police or fire services).
Nothing to see here
If state Republicans are worrying about the trendlines for this fall’s election, they’re not revealing it just yet.
“We are entering the silly season again where Democrat consultants shop polls to reinforce their ‘Florida is in play’ narrative to try and attract out-of-state money,” said Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power in a text message. “Florida will remain democrats fools gold, but we welcome them to come burn more money in Florida.”
Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: info@floridaphoenix.com.
