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PolitiFact Florida
WLRN has partnered with PolitiFact to fact-check Florida politicians. The Pulitzer Prize-winning team seeks to present the true facts, unaffected by agenda or biases.

PolitiFact FL: Trump’s claims of negative net migration are premature. Analysts say it could happen

WLRN Public Media | By Maria Ramirez Uribe | PolitiFact
Published August 11, 2025 at 1:30 PM EDT
President Donald Trump speaks to the media before walking across the South Lawn of the White House to board Marine One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Md., and on to Florida, Tuesday, July 1, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Mark Schiefelbein
/
AP
President Donald Trump speaks to the media before walking across the South Lawn of the White House to board Marine One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Md., and on to Florida, Tuesday, July 1, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

WLRN has partnered with PolitiFact to fact-check Florida politicians. The Pulitzer Prize-winning team seeks to present the true facts, unaffected by agenda or biases.

President Donald Trump said he has fulfilled one of his campaign promises: More people are leaving the country than immigrating to it, he said.

"Promises made. Promises kept. Negative net migration for the first time in 50 years!" Trump said in a Truth Social post Aug. 4.

Other White House officials touted it as a historic development.

"During the last period in which America was the undisputed global superpower — finically, culturally, militarily — immigration was net negative," Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said in an Aug. 3 X post. "All population growth was from family formation."

The statements followed an Aug. 3 segment by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, who said, "2025 net migration in the U.S. down at least 60% from last year. In fact, we may be heading for the first time in at least 50 years in which we have net negative migration into the United States." Miller included the CNN clip in his X post, and the White House also shared it in a news release.

What "may be" is a prediction. That’s different from what is. We checked the data.

The available numbers are 2025 projections, not final numbers. One think tank predicts there will be negative net migration to the U.S. this year. Others estimate that although net migration will be lower than in years past, it will not be negative.

Negative net migration is possible in 2025, but Trump "has no basis to make that claim until the US Census Bureau analyzes the 2025 data next year," Michael Clemens, George Mason University economics professor, said.

According to the Census Bureau calendar, net migration data will be published in December 2025.

When PolitiFact asked the White House for evidence net migration is in the negative, a spokesperson shared Enten’s CNN clip.

"President Trump was elected on his promise to end illegal immigration, deport criminal illegal aliens, and put Americans First — that’s exactly what he’s doing," White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said.

The White House did not respond to our questions about what period Miller was referring to as the one in which the immigration was "net negative."

What is net migration? 

Net migration measures how many people immigrated to the U.S. minus the number of people who moved out of the county. If it’s positive, more people entered than left. This number is used to determine how many people live in the U.S., how old they are and how many can participate in the labor force, for example.

"As the U.S. population ages and more U.S.-born residents enter retirement, immigration will become increasingly important for driving labor force growth," the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute said in an October report.

Historically, the country’s population has grown as births exceeded deaths, according to a December 2024 U.S. Census Bureau report. But in recent years, with fewer births and more deaths, the U.S. has relied on net migration for population growth.

Determining net migration relies on data about how many people immigrated to the U.S., including people who entered illegally and were released into the U.S. to seek asylum, people who evaded border officials and people who entered legally on visas or through the refugee program. The number also accounts for people who left the country voluntarily and through deportation.

The 2025 net migration is "contingent on the administration’s progress toward its deportation goal," Clemens said. And it will "not be independently verifiable until the Census Bureau conducts independent analysis late next year."

When did the U.S. last experience negative net migration? 

Net immigration data from before 2000 is limited. However, from 1971 to 1980, around 50 years ago, net migration was positive, according to the Congressional Research Service.

The U.S. experienced negative net migration more than 85 years ago, in the period from 1931 to 1940. The U.S. was in the midst of the Great Depression during most of those years. In response to high unemployment rates, the U.S. government carried out an effort to expel millions of Mexicans, including those born in the U.S.

A January 2022 study published in the Journal of Public Economics found the repatriations "resulted in reduced employment" and U.S. born workers taking lower skilled jobs.

A 2024 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Real Estate study found that expelling Mexicans from the U.S. during that period "negatively impacted U.S. cities" by lowering house values and slowing real estate growth.

Clemens said these examples show that "net negative immigration is a story of shame and loss from around 90 years ago, not a story of triumph from 50 years ago."

What have economists said about 2025 net migration?

Of the five groups that published 2025 net migration estimates, all agree that U.S. net migration will decrease.

In July, the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, said net migration will likely fall between a loss of 525,000 people to a gain of 115,000 people. The report was co-authored by two economists from the nonpartisan Brookings Institution.

"Though small positive net flows are within our projected range and certainly possible, we believe zero or net negative migration for the year is more likely," the group’s report said.

Among its reasons for the predicted "dramatic decrease" is one simple one: The number of people immigrating to the U.S. has and will continue to drop. Illegal immigration at the U.S. southern border has dropped sharply during the Trump administration. Trump has also curtailed several programs that allow people to enter the U.S. legally, such as the refugee program which he has indefinitely paused.

The American Enterprise Institute also predicted that fewer work and student visas will be issued this year due to additional vetting and travel bans.

The number of people moving out of the U.S. is also likely to increase, the group said. Mass deportations and people choosing to voluntarily leave in a "generalized fear and anti-immigrant climate" play a role.

Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the institute and one of the report’s authors, said it may be impossible to know with certainty whether there will be negative net migration in 2025, particularly "if the number is close to zero, as it may well be." He said it’s especially difficult to track people who voluntarily leave the U.S.

In July, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimated a 2025 net migration of about 1 million people. The number is a drop from the 2.8 million net immigration growth in 2024, the Census Bureau reported.

"The number of immigrants entering the United States began to decline in the second half of 2024 and fell sharply in the first half of 2025," the reserve bank’s report said.

In a June podcast, Sam Coffin, a senior economist at the investment banking company Morgan Stanley, estimated a net population growth of 300,000 people in 2025. That same month, Oxford Economics, a global advisory firm, projected a net migration of 500,000 in 2025.

How do drops in net migration affect the U.S. economy? 

Despite having different projections, the groups noted that reduced or negative net migration could negatively affect the economy. Among them:

  • The American Enterprise Institute predicted it could slow labor force growth and decrease the country’s gross domestic product — the sum of all goods and services produced within a nation's borders.
  • Oxford Economics cited lower GDP and increased inflation resulting from a smaller labor force that is unlikely to be filled by U.S.-born workers.

Some of the analyses noted that the effects may be limited, one group said high net migration in previous years will help offset some of these effects.

Our ruling

Trump said, "Promises kept: negative net migration for the first time in 50 years."

What Trump presented as a statement of fact is actually a predictive summary of a more cautious CNN clip.

Multiple projections say 2025 net migration is likely to show a notable decline. But there are no current numbers showing the U.S. has reached negative net migration in 2025, as Trump’s statement reads.

Among five published estimates, one projected that the U.S. will have 2025 negative net migration and four predicted net migration will decline but remain positive.

The Census Bureau will publish net migration estimates in December 2025.

The last time the U.S. had negative net migration was at least 85 years ago, during the Great Depression.

The statement contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression. We rate it Mostly False.

Our Sources
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Maria Ramirez Uribe | PolitiFact
Maria Ramirez Uribe is an immigration reporter at PolitiFact.
See stories by Maria Ramirez Uribe | PolitiFact
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