Amid cuts across the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), one retired official is expressing concerns that this could lead to less accurate forecasts and increased response needs this upcoming hurricane season.
The season starts on June 1, and the cuts are part of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency, commonly coined DOGE, and other funding decisions directed by President Donald Trump's administration.
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According to NPR, by the end of April, hundreds of employees at NOAA who work at offices and research centers had been let go.
NOAA is the government agency over the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center.
In addition, more than a dozen positions have been cut at NWS offices across Florida responsible for weather forecasts and warnings when there are threats of bad weather.
Importance of Florida's National Weather Service offices
On "The Florida Roundup," James Franklin, former branch chief of the National Hurricane Center's Hurricane Specialist Unit, said his understanding is that in local offices like Miami and Key West, they are down 30% for meteorologists.
"When you've got an event and a hurricane event can go on for days that requires around-the-clock coverage, and you're going to burn out some of these people," he said.
Miami Herald reporter Alex Harris explained on "The Florida Roundup" how meteorologists are the "top boss" at a weather office and are making the management decisions. This ranges from giving the OK for a forecast to whether a watch or a warning alert goes out to the public. They are also the ones poring over all the data they get their hands on.
Harris explained how the offices are valuable because the meteorologists are localizing the impacts of a larger weather phenomenon from letting people know there's a flash flood warning and they shouldn't drive for a few hours to extreme heat and bringing extra water with you. All in all, they're the people providing you local warnings and notifications.
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Harris' calculations are that the state NWS offices are running down about 16 fewer staffers from meteorologists who head the office to the engineers who keep the show running.
This then shakes down to about three or four people per an office of around 20 to 30 people.
"But we're not talking bare bones. We are definitely down," Harris told Hudson. "We have fewer players on the field right as the big game is about to start."
Harris has been judging these numbers by looking at the current staff list they have on their website and comparing them to a staff list from around September. Harris then searched them up on LinkedIn and found out they were either open to work or already working in other places.
Harris added that it looked like it was a combination of people who took a buyout, were laid off, or in one case, decided to pursue a career in real estate. In general, there were various reasons, but the positions have been listed as vacant on the website. Harris is still working to determine if the roles no longer exist at the NWS offices or are just empty at this time.
In addition, Franklin mentioned that the NWS is trying to move people around to fill any vacancies, but it can only do so much to alleviate the issue of short staffing.
"It's a little bit like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic," he told host Tom Hudson. "You fill a hole somewhere and you're creating one somewhere else."
Impact of NWS cuts
Franklin, who retired in 2017, added that these losses at local weather forecasts are going to be important in a few ways.
The first is that across the country, there are some offices where, twice a day, balloon launches are no longer happening. He said these launches are observations that improve numerical models and when those lessen, there can be a decrease in model forecasts.
"If, as a hurricane approaches, some of those balloon launches, whether they be in Florida or the Midwest or wherever they are, all those observations are connected that you're going to see some degradations in some of the model forecasts of hurricanes," Franklin said.
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He added that he feels these cuts are going to hinder both public and private meteorologists.
"When you cut weather balloon launches there, the data aren't available to anybody not even private forecasters," Franklin said. "When you cut modeling groups like they did at the Environmental Modeling Center up in Maryland, the models don't get better, and nobody then can get the benefits of improved models, including private meteorologists."
In general, Franklin said that it's not so much the National Hurricane Center staffing that worries him, as he believes that on a national level, they will continue to be well-staffed. The National Hurricane Center produces the forecasts for hurricane tracks, intensity and size.
However, he is worried about cuts to area offices as they translate those National Hurricane Center forecasts into local impacts and talk with local emergency managers and officials to try to get them the best information that they can get on what's happening in their specific areas.
"I am concerned that they will not be able to reach as many people when we're in you know, some of those serious situations this summer," he said.
In addition to this, according to NPR, the Trump administration has proposed deep cuts to NOAA, including slashing the budget more than 25% overall from its current level of roughly $6 billion. This would have to be approved by Congress.
"This loss, and not just the weather service, but if you look at the proposed budget in terms of cutting off NOAA research side, cutting off the cooperative institutes that exist across the county, we're talking about getting rid of organizations that have produced key techniques and key technologies that the National Hurricane Center has come to rely on," Franklin said about the proposed cuts.
Outlook for the 2025 hurricane season
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
David Merrick, the director of Florida State University's Center for Disaster Risk Policy, said the emergency management community is being told to expect a different season this year compared to last.
"The '25 season is going to look different than the '24 season. We don't know exactly how that is," Merrick said. "I think Florida might be in a much better position than some of the other states when it comes to the ability to respond and recover."
Kevin Guthrie, Florida Department of Emergency Management executive director, also told "The Florida Roundup" the state "is prepared for any storms that come our way this year and will continue to perform at a very high level for the residents of Florida."
Overall, Franklin told Hudson his concern has to do with the forecast side of things — not the response.
"It's the forecasts that are going to be degraded starting this year, and that means that the people who have to respond may have to do more response rather than less, because we're dealing with poorer forecasts," he said.
And as hurricane season approaches, Franklin said it's essential for people to know what their risks are for where they live, whether that be flooding or even wind.
"It really is important, as we see what's happening on the federal level, that people take some responsibility and don't get caught unawares and unprepared," Franklin said.
This story was compiled from interviews conducted by Tom Hudson for "The Florida Roundup."
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