Palm Beach County may be turning majority Republican red sooner rather than later, a new analysis of voter registration data shows.
Republicans could overtake Democrats in Palm Beach County — a longtime Democratic stronghold — as early as this year but no later than next year, according to an analysis of voter registration data released Friday by Mi Vecinos, an influential Florida-based group that mobilizes Latino voters. They operate in five states.
“Palm Beach County is losing its Democratic registration advantage,” said Alejandro Berrios, founder of Mi Vecino. “That is the fact. The numbers have moved too far and too fast for anyone to keep treating Palm Beach as safely Democratic.”
The dramatic shift is not limited to Palm Beach County, home to President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago. In 2018, Democrats held a statewide voter registration advantage of more than 257,000 voters. But in recent years Republicans have taken a commanding lead — the GOP now holds a statewide advantage of about 1.5 million voters.
Republicans now outnumber Democrats in 59 of Florida’s 67 counties, up from 47 counties in 2018, according to the Mi Vecino analysis.
The big shift has been especially evident in Miami-Dade, the state's largest county. In 2018, Democrats led registered Republicans by roughly 217,000 voters; by 2026, Republicans outpaced Democrats by roughly 47,000 voters.
"That is a net swing of more than 264,000 registered voters toward Republicans in the heart of Latino Florida," writes Mi Vecino analysts.
The same voter registration pattern is happening in Palm Beach County, say Mi Vecino analysts. They noted the number of registered Democrat voters had dropped from more than 128,000 voters in 2018 to less than 10,000 this year.
The rise of Republican voters in Florida, especially in South Florida, has been steady over the years, influencing the presidential election and turning the once swing state into a safe seat for the GOP.
Democrats have not won a Florida governor’s race since 1994 and have not won a statewide race since 2018.
READ MORE: Florida stopped being a swing state slowly, then all at once
In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden — who won the election over Republican Donald Trump — carried Palm Beach County by more than 100,000 votes. Four years later, Democrat Kamala Harris — who replaced Biden late in the campaign — won the county by just 6,000 votes.
“Palm Beach is not a safe county for Democrats anymore,” Berrios said. “The registration data, election results, and migration patterns all point in the same direction. Democrats are losing ground in places they once assumed would hold.”
Berrios said he does not see the "Democratic collapse" in Florida "explained by one candidate, one message, or one election cycle" and that Democrats need to make a "serious reassessment" its strategy in the Sunshine State or face more electoral losses.
“Florida is telling us what is happening every month through voter registration data,” Berrios said. “The problem is that too many political models are still built around old assumptions. If the electorate changes and the method does not, the result is predictable.”
“As [Democratic National Committee] Chair, Ken Martin has a responsibility to support state parties facing structural decline and make sure national strategy is based on the realities of what is actually happening in the states,” Berrios said.
“Florida should not be treated as a mystery after each loss or as a fantasy before each election. The registration data is clear. The county trends are clear. Palm Beach is the next major warning. Florida is not alone in this trend."
“Mi Vecino has been ahead of this conversation because we keep in touch with our community,” he said. “We saw the Latino shift, the male voter collapse, the registration crisis, the voter churn, and the Palm Beach trend before they became impossible to ignore. Florida can still be competed in, but not with the same methods that helped produce the collapse.”
