The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic, but the system is expected to remain more of a curiosity factor for weather observers than any type of threat to the United States.
At last check, NHC forecasters were calling for a low chance of tropical development over the next seven days, as environmental conditions are not currently favorable for tropical cyclone organization.
The area being monitored stretches from southeast of Bermuda into the open Atlantic, where water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development.
For a tropical cyclone to form, thunderstorms would need to become more concentrated and persistent around an area of low pressure.
If thunderstorms are eventually able to coalesce around a center of circulation - a significant unknown still at this point - the disturbance could become the sixth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which would be Fay.
Even if the system manages to develop into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm, there is little indication that it would ever threaten the Lower 48.
A series of troughs are expected to be exiting the U.S. East Coast, which are expected to help keep any potential tropical system from approaching the U.S.
The most likely land-related impacts, if any, would be for the British territory of Bermuda.
Computer forecast guidance is not in complete agreement on whether the system will ever develop.
Some of the newer artificial intelligence-based forecast models have been more aggressive in suggesting development when compared to many of the older operational deterministic models.
The central Atlantic disturbance is not the only region where tropical development could occur over the next few weeks.
Another general area of interest is off the coast of Africa, where ocean temperatures remain warm enough to support tropical cyclone activity.
However, the Cabo Verde portion of the hurricane season typically becomes less active later in the season, making long-track tropical cyclones originating off Africa less common.
Another area to watch is in the Caribbean Sea, for activity associated with the Central American Gyre, or what is commonly referred to as the CAG.
The CAG is a broad area of low pressure that extends across parts of Central America, the western Caribbean Sea and into the eastern Pacific.
When favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions are at play, energy associated with the gyre can help produce tropical cyclones.
The early and later portions of the Atlantic basin hurricane season are particularly notable for tropical systems developing from energy associated with the CAG.
On average, the weather pattern produces a tropical cyclone about once every other year, with some of those systems eventually becoming significant hurricanes.
Hurricane Michael (2018) and Hurricane Milton (2024) are examples of powerful cyclones with origins that can be traced back to Central America.
Michael was a Category 5 hurricane when it made landfall along the Florida Panhandle, and Milton at one time had the potential to be one of the worst hurricanes to ever strike the Tampa Bay region.
Since 2000, roughly 25 systems have formed across the Atlantic basin with direct help from the CAG.
The formation of storm systems from the gyre tends to be more common when neutral or La Niña conditions are present.
These patterns are fairly different from the El Niño that is currently in place.
El Niño events typically produce environments that are less supportive of tropical cyclones, with increased wind shear and cooler water temperatures.
This broader pattern has been one of the factors limiting tropical activity during the 2026 season.
If the year were to end without another tropical cyclone forming, 2026 would become the quietest Atlantic hurricane season of the satellite era and the second-quietest season since reliable record keeping began in the 1800s.
The hurricane season officially runs through the end of November.
