The communist nation of Cuba is at a crossroads. Even the government acknowledged as much when last week it issued the most sweeping economic reforms that Cuba has seen since the earliest days of the Cuban Revolution. In one rapid-fire move, the Soviet-style planned economy model was out. The new model: an attempt to emulate China and Vietnam in merging communist control with capitalism.
“It is time to change everything that needs to be changed,” said Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel in announcing the sweeping, 176-point reforms. “Cuba must change what is necessary to preserve what is essential.”
Under the new reforms, private banks will be allowed to operate, as well as private money exchange markets. Price caps on products will be a thing of the past. In contrast to the centralize-everything style that has defined the Cuban Revolution, power is being significantly decentralized to municipalities. Cities will be allowed to import and export on their own, hold their own foreign currency accounts and come up with programs to directly attract foreign investment, all in hopes of improving the spiraling economy.
Suddenly, it might actually matter who runs the city government in Havana, Matanzas and Santiago de Cuba.
The dramatic move comes as Cuba's struggling economy and electrical grid has been hit by an effective U.S. oil blockade that started in early January. The resulting extreme fuel shortage has impacted virtually every aspect of Cuban life, from education and agriculture to the operation of hospitals. The Trump Administration has threatened punishing tariffs to any nation that dares to send oil to the country.
Coupled with the oil blockade, the Trump Administration has in recent months issued escalating sanctions on Cuban officials and businesses. Last month, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted revolutionary leader Raul Castro on four counts of murder and other charges connected to the downing of a civilian plane in 1996.
All in the effort to topple the regime for once and for all. As President Trump has said, Cuba is “next” after the war in Iran.
In the meantime, the humanitarian situation on the island remains a top concern of the United Nations and other international groups. They warn that the extended pressure campaign can lead to hunger and deaths.
Danica Coto is the Caribbean correspondent for The Associated Press, and she has visited Cuba, in January and February, and later during April during the escalating U.S. campaign for regime change on the island.
WLRN spoke to her about her travels and what she has seen — and felt — in recent visits.
WLRN: You’ve made two trips to Cuba recently after not having been there for many years. What is your main impression on how things are now compared to in the past?
COTO: It feels like the island is slowly dying. You see a lot less movement, a lot less energy, and I'm talking about, you know, both, power-wise and just, you know, the energy of the people. You know, I hadn't been to Cuba since Hurricane Fiona, which was 2022, and what struck me is: the spark was lost among people when I went in January and February. And then this last time, it just — it truly felt apocalyptical. The scenes in Havana and beyond. Because of the lack of petroleum there were just very few people on the streets, very few cars.
We drove to Santa Clara, which is close to the center of the island, and you could literally spend several minutes on the highway and stay there, and there were no cars coming and going. So every time I go, it just feels like a small death each time.
Many have compared this to the “Periodo Especial,” the special period that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, the accompanying collapse of the Cuban economy. Is that a comparison you heard on the ground, and how are people making that comparison, if so?
I ask everyone I interview, because I'm curious: how does this compare to the Periodo Especial? Every person that I've asked about this comparison, every single one of them has said that this situation is much worse than what they lived through in the '90s.
You've written about a push to be more self-sufficient during this new special period, if we can call it that. President Miguel Díaz-Canel, earlier in this effective oil blockade, said that provinces would largely have to eat what they produce. I'm wondering where that leaves a place like Havana that doesn't produce a lot of its own food. Transportation is very tricky because of the lack of fuel on the island. How is Havana doing, and how are the provinces doing?
It's difficult all around. I would say that the rural areas are the hardest hit in terms of outages. They're more common there, and they last longer. But in terms of food, the rural areas are cultivating crops, and they're eating there. But they also lament how these same crops that are meant for people in Havana and elsewhere, they're not able to transport them. There's a breakdown in equipment. They can't get the new pieces because of the sanctions, and even if their equipment is running, which is rare nowadays, they don't have the fuel needed to transport crops, milk, and other basic goods, to the city and elsewhere.
So Havana in that sense is particularly hard hit.
And this energy crisis, of course, was not entirely brought about by the U.S. oil blockade. Even prior to the US effectively blocking shipments of oil except for this one tanker from Russia, there were already widespread blackouts in Cuba. Do people look at the oil blockade itself and say, ‘This is the reason,’ or are some of them pointing the finger at their own government?
I would say privately Cubans do point the finger not only at the oil embargo but also at the government. A lot of the system — the overall grid hasn't been maintained for years. The government has said that it needs new equipment, and it's unable to do so given U.S. sanctions.
I remember interviewing one woman who lived near the thermoelectric Antonio Guiteras, which is just east of Havana. And she said, 'I haven't seen this working fully in months.' She was forced to rip off the door of her bathroom, which was made out of wood, to use as firewood to cook for her children. She lives in a very simple cinder block home with a zinc roof and, you know, right now there's a sheet covering her bathroom because she had to use the door for firewood because there was no coal available either at the time.
There have been reports in recent weeks, recent months really, of protests hitting parts of the island, with some regularity. Is there any sign that these protests could coalesce into something larger at some point?
Not so far. We've seen spontaneous protests in rural areas, in some neighborhoods in Havana, including Miramar and other areas. But they've been limited in scale. They erupt for one day, maybe two days, and these protests are largely about the lack of power and the lack of water. But the most violent protest we saw was several months ago in a rural town where some people broke into one of the government agency's buildings and set fire to furniture. Some people were arrested and some people that I've talked to said they fear repercussions if they do go out and protest.
Is there any indication that the recently announced indictment of Raúl Castro and sanctions on President Díaz-Canel is putting real pressure on the government of Cuba to respond to these sweeping demands from the U.S.?
It's hard to say. I mean, the Cuban government is very hermetic. President Miguel Diaz-Canel has condemned this indictment as has Foreign Affairs Minister Bruno Rodriguez and others. But again, earlier this year when they were having talks, no one was privy to these talks until after they happened and it was announced that some U.S. officials had flown to Cuba to meet with Cuban officials. But again, it's very hermetic. It's unclear what, if anything, the Cuban government is doing in response to this indictment.
Overall, you find that Cubans — not only the government, but Cubans — when you speak with them, they also condemn the actions by the U.S. government. They will tell you, 'Yes, we know things are hard here, but still we condemn what, what the U.S. has done so far.'
A retired pilot you talked to in one of your stories a few months back said: "Our wine is bitter, but it's our wine." Can you talk about what he meant by that?
There's a very big patriotism, a sentiment of patriotism in Cuba, and it's like, 'Well, this is our problem and we will deal with it as we see fit.' And that's him and other people talking, that they basically will not organize anything, any protests or any revolution or anything of the sort under pressure from a foreign country. If they decide they've had enough, they will do it on their own and they will decide how to do it. But it's like, basically, 'We will handle our own business and we don't need anyone else to intercede or to tell us how to, how to do this.'
