Florida's taste of fall arrives, it's been overa 5 years since something similar has happened!

The weather pattern is shifting across Florida, and we’re getting an early taste of fall just in time for the season's first full weekend. On Thursday afternoon, the cold front continues to push across South Florida. We can still expect a few isolated showers Thursday evening into Friday morning.

This cold front is tied to a low-pressure system that will likely become a nor’easter over the weekend and into early next week. For Florida, this means winds will come straight from the north-northeast, bringing a rush of dry air and windy conditions, especially along the eastern coast. With winds coming mainly from the north-northeast, expect much drier air to arrive across Florida. This dry air will inhibit the development of afternoon thunderstorms through much of the weekend and, most importantly, lower humidity levels—a much-welcomed change across the state after a blistering summer.

Flooding Threats

With strong winds coming mainly from the north across much of the state, expect numerous coastal and marine hazards along Florida’s East Coast. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph are expected, with gusts up to 35 mph through Friday along the state's northeastern coast.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect across Atlantic coastal waters through early Saturday morning. These strong winds, combined with higher astronomical tides due to this weekend’s full moon, will increase the flooding threat along Florida’s East Coast. Remember, whenever we have a full moon or new moon, especially during this time of year, we start talking about king tides. This means high tides will be higher than average, while low tides will be lower than average.

The biggest issue will be the higher-than-normal high tides, which can often bring flooding even when it isn’t raining. These areas are usually along the coast, and in South Florida, water can rise through streets near downtown Miami.

This water is often mixed with seawater and sewage, which can contain bacteria and damage vehicles. Stay away from flooded roads. Remember: turn around, don’t drown, and don't walk through floodwaters. Rip currents also pose a high risk and will likely remain in place throughout much of the weekend along Florida’s East Coast, including the Space Coast.

Let’s Talk About the Cooldown

Temperatures in the 60s are not something we usually see in September, although we have seen them in recent years. For example, in Fort Myers in September 2020, there were three nights with temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s.

Average low temperatures in the Orlando area during late September are usually in the low 70s. Throughout this weekend, from Saturday morning through Monday morning, temperatures will be around 5 to 7 degrees below normal, with lows between 66 and 67 degrees.

Across South Florida, don’t expect temperatures to drop drastically, but conditions will feel refreshing for this time of year. Low temperatures will stay in the low 70s on weekend mornings, while highs will remain near average for this time of year, in the upper 80s. The big difference will be the humidity, which will make conditions feel a bit more comfortable over the weekend. We’ll also see more periods of sunshine.

In fact, South Florida can expect a very sunny Sunday afternoon, with highs remaining in the mid-80s. Humidity levels will be more comfortable on Sunday, although it may still feel sticky at times, especially if you’re doing outdoor activities. Dew points will stay in the mid- to upper 60s.

The average high and low for the Panhandle region at this time of year are around 87 and 66 degrees, respectively. But Friday night into Saturday morning, temperatures in Tallahassee will drop into the upper 50s. Afternoon temperatures will range between 82 and 85 degrees on Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures will gradually increase as we move into the beginning of next week, with humidity levels also increasing. Winds will ease across much of the state beginning late in the weekend. They will also shift direction, and we can expect to return to an easterly to southeasterly flow by Tuesday. Moisture will slowly creep back in on Tuesday, and the chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms will increase across South Florida Tuesday afternoon before gradually spreading northward into Central Florida by mid-next week.