TALLAHASSEE — There are sixteen incumbent state legislators, all in the House, are facing primary challenges next week.
All but three are Republicans.
Some challengers claimed they decided to run without focusing on their opponents. One GOP challenger has been accused of being a Democratic plant.
In every case, the incumbent enters the home stretch of the primary with a sizeable financial advantage.
There is also insider help from Tallahassee.
Several incumbents, including Rep. Mike Redondo, an attorney from Miami who is in line to be the House Speaker in 2030, have received staffing and other in-kind support worth thousands of dollars from the Republican Party of Florida or the House Republican Campaign Committee.
The House committee is overseen by Rep. Sam Garrison, a Fleming Island Republican slated to become Speaker after the November general election.
University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett said he hasn’t seen it “broadly” in the House challenges, but when it comes to the Republican contests President Donald Trump typically plays a role.
“In some cases, the challengers to Republicans are people who are dissatisfied with the current incumbent because they're too supportive of President Trump, and then in other cases it's because they don't believe that they're supportive enough,” Jewett said. “Either way, I think it's interesting that in most of these cases, President Trump is still sort of a central figure within the Republican Party and in the Republican primaries.”
Regardless of the reason for running, challengers face the hurdles of name recognition and access to money enjoyed by incumbents.
“If you're already in office, once you decide to run again, it's about a 90 percent probability that you're going to win again,” Jewett said. “Although incumbents usually win, some do get knocked off every election cycle, and so challengers, for a variety of reasons, are able to figure out ways to do that.”
One way to overcome an incumbent’s advantages is to be independently wealthy and self-fund the campaign, which doesn’t appear to be the case for any of the 16 primary challengers.
In a simple look at campaign funding, those 16 incumbents have on average raised nearly $109,000 more than their primary challengers.
The funding gap between incumbents and challengers jumps to more than $240,000 when political committee holdings are factored in.
Surprisingly, not all the incumbents have political committees. Also, the average with political committees is somewhat skewed as Redondo’s committee, The Right Path For Florida, held $1.3 million as of July 31.
Redondo’s challenger, Marco Insua, an educator from Miami, lists a single donation of $100 since opening his campaign account March 10.
Meanwhile, RPOF has provided nearly $45,000 worth of assistance to Rep. Doug Bankson of Apopka, $3,500 worth of assistance to Rep. Bill Conerly of Lakewood Ranch and just over $3,000 worth of assistance to Rep. Randy Maggard of Dade City.
Bankson has separately raised nearly $95,000 while his Republican challenger Carlos Johary of Longwood hasn’t reported any financial activity. Bankson has also received $10,000 worth of assistance from the FHRCC.
Conerly, who has raised $180,000 with his campaign account and had nearly $80,000 on hand with the policial committee Engineering a Conservative Florida, also has received $10,000 worth of support from the FHRCC.
Conerly’s Republican primary opponent, John Phillips, a retired U.S. Coast Guard chief warrant officer, has raised more than $13,500, of which $10,000 is his own money.
The FHRCC also provided $10,000 worth of assistance to Rep. Vanessa Oliver of Punta Gorda, around $47,000 worth of aid to Maggard’s campaign, and $29,000 worth of staffing to Redondo’s campaign.
Oliver raised $156,000 and had almost $118,000 on hand in her political committee Friends of Vanessa Oliver as of July 31.
Her primary challenger, Julie McCormack, a small business owner from Punta Gorda, has raised $5,000 and put up nearly $1,400 for the campaign.
Maggard had raised $152,000 and his political committee PASCO PAC had just over $91,000 on hand on July 31.
His primary opponent Michael Pultorak, a real estate agent from San Antonio, has raised nearly $11,000, of which $2,000 is his own.
Conerly, Redondo and Oliver each have a Democratic challenger awaiting the winner of their primary battles in the November general election.
The winner of the Maggard-Pultorak contest is highly likely to win the seat because a write-in candidate is the only opponent waiting in the general election.
The other incumbents facing primary challengers are:
- District 14: Rep. Kim Daniels, D-Jacksonville, is being challenged by Rhian Tutson of Jacksonville. Without any other candidates in the race, the winner will be seated for the 2027-2028 term.
- District 18: Rep. Kim Kendall, R-St. Augustine, is being challenged by Diana Patrica Jordan-Baldwin from St. Augustine, a former Democrat. Kendall has accused Jordan-Baldwin of being a Democrat in disguise. Jordan-Baldwin told the St. Johns Citizen news outlet she changed parties because Republican principles now more closely reflect her values.
- District 23: Rep. J.J. Grow, R-Inverness, is being challenged by Tod Gordon Cloud of Homosassa.
- District 24: Rep. Ryan Chamberlin, R-Belleview, being challenged by Scott Wilkins of Ocala. Without any other candidates in the contest, the winner of the primary will take the seat.
- District 25: Rep. Taylor Yarkosky, R-Montverde, is being challenged by Tom Vail of Groveland.
- District 32: Rep. Brian Hodgers, R-Viera, is being challenged by Mark Lightner of Rockledge.
- District 34: Rep. Robert Brackett, R-Vero Beach, is being challenged by Paul Sohi of Vero Beach.
- District 36: Rep. Rachel Plakon, R-Lake Mary, is being challenged by Joshua Sorto of Longwood.
- District 46: Rep. Jose Alvarez, D-Kissimmee, is being challenged by Robert LeWayne Johnson, a military veteran from Kissimmee who finished second in a four-way primary to Alvarez in 2024.
- District 48: Rep. Jon Albert, R-Frostproof, faces a primary challenge from Jerry Carter, a Winter Haven resident and former Polk County commissioner who came in second to Albert in 2024 in a six-person GOP contest.
- District 98: Rep. Mitch Rosenwald, D-Oakland Park, is being challenged by Keith Abel of Oakland Park. Without any other candidates in the contest, the winner will take the seat.
