TAMPA — David Jolly likes his chances of becoming the first Democrat to win the governor’s race in Florida in more than three decades this November.
You read that correctly. The 53-year-old former GOP Congressman and MSNBC pundit’s confidence appears off the charts even though there are 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats in the state; he is being outspent by likely GOP gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds by 10:1; and no Democrat has won anything at the state level since 2018.
According to Jolly, in this election year money doesn’t buy popularity.
“We need resources to reach the mark. I don’t want to be naive about that,” he said on Monday night after finishing a primary election eve rally in Tampa. “But this is a cycle where you can get outspent 10:1 and still win. Now I will tell you I think that you’re going to see money come in.”
Jolly and Democrats believe that while Donald Trump’s endorsement for Donalds last year meant everything for his success in Tuesday’s primary, it could prove to be an albatross around his neck in the general, as the president’s approval ratings are now at an all-time low nationally.
“Byron Donalds has spent more than $50 million dollars and his number are getting worse. His numbers are getting worse!” he thundered to a crowd estimated at around 300 people in a cavernous outdoor patio space in Tampa’s Ybor City entertainment district Monday night.
“There’s this thing in politics,” he continued. “There are some candidates that the more you see of them, the more you learn about them, the less you like them. Think about Ron DeSantis in Iowa, folks.”
Campaign finance records show Donalds has spent a combined total of $55.8 million through his regular campaign and political committee since entering the race in February 2025, blowing away the entire field of candidates who have entered both the Republican and Democratic races for governor this year. Jolly has raised around $10 million overall, and has less than $4 million cash-on-hand right now.
The assertion that Donalds’ poll ratings are tanking isn’t backed up by the data (as questionable as they might be these days). Donalds has a nearly 32-point lead over his closest opponent in Tuesday’s GOP primary, according to an average of polls by RealClearPolitics. A polling average compiled by the election website 270 to win has Donalds up by six points over Jolly in a general election matchup, 45.5%-39.5%.
In addition to former Hillsborough County State Attorney Andrew Warren, the only elected official who took the stage before Jolly’s entrance was Hillsborough County state Sen. Brian Nathan. Nathan defeated a Republican who vastly outspent him in a district won by the previous Republican by nearly 10 points in 2022, winning support from Republicans and non-party-affiliated voters. Jolly has been explicit that the only way he can win in November is by duplicating Nathan’s winning formula.
Attacking trans people
Donalds began airing an ad hitting Jolly on transgender rights last week — a particularly potent issue for Republicans and specifically Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in 2024.
Jolly has previously announced for support for transgender youths’ access to medical care and participation in sports.
“I think what Byron Donalds is doing across the state right now is ugly,” Jolly said of Donalds’ focus. “It’s downright mean and it’s ugly, dividing people based on who they love.”
“Punching down on marginalized communities has never lowered your insurance bill … has never improved education … has never delivered affordable healthcare,” he said.
Jolly has previously addressed Donalds’ criticism of transgender rights by arguing Floridians can’t afford to be distracted by “culture wars” rather than addressing the affordability crisis. He told reporters after his speech Monday night that he remains an “old-school Republican who thinks that government should stay out of your lives, should stay out of your doctor’s offices, stay out of your bedroom. Respect your medical privacy.”
He went on to say, “I do think that local communities know how to set the rules for their sports leagues. I’m not going to try to change the current law. I’m going to leave that to the courts.”
Florida has attempted to ban access to medically necessary gender care for minors and limit access for adults. Although a federal court temporarily enjoined the ban, a federal appeals court lifted the stay while it considers arguments. The ban remains in effect as the court deliberates.
Jolly took aim at Donalds in his speech for some of the big-money donors who have contributed to his campaign. That includes dozens of contributions from artificial intelligence groups and donors as well as from companies hoping to build data centers, as reported by POLITICO.
“Byron Donalds has been bought by every special interest in the state,” he said. “Data centers in your neighborhood. Utility companies spiking your rates. For-profit schools. Defunding your local schools. Byron Donalds profits off of all of that. And you know what the difference between me and Byron Donalds is? He will sell you out for a buck as your next governor and I’m going to be there fighting for you.”
Jolly will host his election night watch party in Miami Lakes Tuesday. He intends, he said, to spend a few days there this week preparing for the general election before making a tour of most of the major media markets across the state.
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