Republican candidates hold razor-thin advantages in both the Florida governor and U.S. Senate races, according to the latest statewide poll released Tuesday by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.
In the gubernatorial contest, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by two percentage points, 49% to 47%, with 4% undecided.
Meanwhile, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a four-point edge, 49% to 45%, against Democratic challenger Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate race, with 5% undecided.
Both leads for Republicans have narrowed since UNF's July poll, which showed Donalds ahead by five points and Moody by eight points.
"Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race, similar to the race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis in 2018, which was won by less than a percentage point. Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising," said Dr. Sean Freeder, a UNF political science professor and faculty director of UNF's Public Opinion Research Lab.
Freeder pointed to President Trump's "near-historic" low approval ratings for the close race in Florida.
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"Donalds' attempt to win over Black voters does not appear to be working, as Donalds receives just 10% of their support, only slightly more than Senator Moody’s 9%, despite not engaging in nearly as much effort," Freeder added.
Cross-party support and independent voters are playing key roles in keeping the margins tight. Jolly holds a 16-point advantage over Donalds among independents, pulling 11% of registered Republicans compared to Donalds’ 5% among Democrats. In the U.S. Senate contest, Nixon leads independents by 15 points.
“Like Donalds, Moody appears to be in a competitive race, though one that leans more decisively in her favor. Independents favor Nixon by 15 points, and also appear to be more concerned about Moody’s ties to Hope Florida than Nixon’s ties to socialism,” Freeder noted. “Given the anti-incumbent mood of swing voters, both Donalds and Moody’s success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in terms of turnout and enthusiasm.”
The Republican Party of Florida filed suit last Friday against the Florida Democratic Party, many of its candidates and a slew of television stations, seeking to stop the airing of a political ad highlighting the leaked grand jury presentment in the Hope Florida scandal.
What topics drive voter preferences?
Florida voters were split depending on the issue. Jolly leads Donalds on handling data centers (41% to 37%), while Donalds holds the advantage on property insurance (43% to 38%). The two candidates remain deadlocked on affordability and cost of living, with Jolly at 43% and Donalds at 42%.
Both Republican candidates benefit from higher enthusiasm within their base. Seventy-seven percent of Donalds’ supporters express strong backing compared to 67% for Jolly. In the U.S. Senate race, 79% of Moody’s voters support her strongly compared to 75% for Nixon.
“Both Donalds and Moody enjoy a small but real enthusiasm gap among their voters,” Dr. Freeder said. “This is perhaps understandable given that former Republican Jolly may be less appealing to Democratic voters further to the left, and leftist Nixon may alienate moderate Democrats with her positions on the economy and Israel.”
Amendment 3: 14% remain undecided
The survey also polled Amendment 3, a proposed homestead property tax exemption measure. Fifty percent indicated a "yes" vote—10 points short of the 60% supermajority required for passage—while 30% plan to vote "no" and 14% remain undecided.
The survey was conducted October 12–19, 2026, via telephone using a random sample of 1,471 likely midterm election voters. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 2.81 percentage points.
