Tropical Storm Fay has formed in the Atlantic Ocean, becoming the sixth named storm of the 2026 hurricane season, but the system is located closer to Europe than the United States and will remain far from the Lower 48 during its brief lifespan.
The National Hurricane Center reports thunderstorms have increased near the center of circulation and curved bands have developed on the storm’s northern and eastern sides.
Despite the improvement in organization, Fay is not expected to become a hurricane, as environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable.
NHC forecasters expect increasing wind shear and an intrusion of drier air to reduce the storm’s ability to strengthen and maintain its organization.
But Fay’s formation highlights the unusual nature of systems during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Through late September, the basin has produced only six named storms, with zero hurricanes.
The first hurricane during an average Atlantic season typically forms around Aug. 11, and, by this point of the season, the basin would have normally produced four hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
With Fay not expected to become a hurricane and no other major storms anticipated to form by the computer forecast models over the next two weeks, the Atlantic basin could finish September without a hurricane forming.
The lack of production would place the 2026 season among a small group of years in which the Atlantic did not produce a single hurricane during the month of September.
This rare occurrence has only been documented around a handful of times, including in 1994, 1914, 1907 and 1905.
The possibility of a September without a hurricane is particularly notable because the month is historically the most active period for cyclones across the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic.
The lack of tropical activity raises questions as to why the Atlantic basin has remained relatively inactive in 2026.
One major factor has been the presence of a near-record breaking El Niño pattern across the Pacific Ocean.
During El Niño events, increased upper-level winds and cooler water temperatures tend to hinder tropical activity.
But the ongoing El Niño has not been the only factor limiting storm development.
Dry, stable air has also dominated portions of the basin, making it more difficult for convection to bubble up and organize into a tropical cyclone.
The cause of the drier air has been debated within the meteorological community, but it presence has been an increasing hinderance for tropical cyclones over recent years, especially during the month of August.
Although the year has been unusually quiet, the hurricane season is far from being over.
The tropical weather season runs through Nov. 30, leaving a little more than two months left for additional tropical activity.
If the season ends without the formation of a hurricane, it would join 1907 and 1914 as the only seasons on record without a cyclone having sustained winds of at least 74 mph - the minimal threshold for a hurricane.
