Talks begin on Saturday in Venezuela on restoring democracy to the crisis-torn country — but stakeholders including South Florida's large Venezuelan diaspora will likely be frustrated with the pace.
The negotiations between Venezuela’s authoritarian regime and its democratic opposition are the first since the U.S. captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro this year — and President Donald Trump declared the country and its oil reserves, the world's largest, were now under his management.
They're also the first real regime-opposition conversations since Maduro, according to vote precinct tallies, stole the 2024 presidential election he lost in a landslide to the opposition — and then brutally put down protests.
The aim of the new discussions is to create a path to new elections, starting with the creation of a new and more independent national election council.
Because of the tacit Trump administration oversight, Venezuela analysts including Imdat Oner, a former Turkish diplomat who served many years in Venezuela, believe these talks might finally have success.
But Oner, now a senior fellow with the Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University, told WLRN they will likely be slow.
“Venezuela is the only foreign policy success story for the Trump administration so far," Oner pointed out.
"That’s why they don’t want to push the elections so quickly this whole set-up might fail.”
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One key indication that the administration wants to move carefully is that Venezuelan democracy leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, who is pushing for quicker elections timeline, will not be taking part in the talks.
The opposition will instead be represented by former National Assembly leader Dinorah Figueras — a respected if less commanding figure whom the Trump administration considers a better bet to broker a deal with the regime Trump kept in place in Venezuela after Maduro's ouster.
The regime will be represented by current National Assembly leader Jorge Rodríguez, the brother of Venezuela's acting President, Delcy Rodríguez, who was Maduro's vice president.
Because polls show the regime would lose new elections, Oner acknowledges it may try to stall for time — perhaps until after Trump leaves office in 2029.
“We know Delcy, Jorge and company will make these discussions as long as possible," Oner said, "and make it complicated as much as possible.”
Jorge Rodríguez said recently that setting elections was an even lower priority for the regime now because of the powerful earthquakes that struck Venezuela last month.
Government figures say the 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude quakes on June 24 killed over 5,000 people, injured nearly 17,000 and left almost 18,000 homeless. Authorities have not said how many remain missing, though estimates put the figure in the tens of thousands.
The World Bank estimates the quakes caused $19.6 billion in direct physical damage.
