The first competitive mayoral race in decades has City of Miami voters at the edge of their seats, with a runoff election taking place on Tuesday.
Even though the mayoral seat is technically non-partisan, the race has become largely divided along partisan lines and is being watched across the country as a barometer of where the political winds will blow for the 2026 midterms.
Candidate Eileen Higgins, a former county commissioner, has received support from top Democrats in trying to become the first Democrat to hold the seat in nearly 30 years.
At the same time, former city manager Emilio González has received an endorsement from President Donald Trump and drawn support from the city's strong Republican political machinery.
Latino voters heavily swung towards Republicans in 2024. Elections so far this year in other New Jersey and Virginia have shown Latinos swinging back towards Democrats, and with Miami being a Hispanic-majority city, many across the nation are closely watching the race.
“In terms of most outsiders looking in at this, their number one question is, 'Is a Latino vote noticeably going to switch from Republican to Democrat, and if so, how much?'” said Susan MacManus, a distinguished university professor emerita in the Department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida. “They'll interpret that to be something to watch in the 2026 election cycle.”
Both candidates have campaigned on a platform of reform in city government at a time when City Hall has been plagued by scandals for years. On issues like transportation, flooding, removing regulations on businesses and homeowners, both candidates are largely on the same page.
But the candidates are sharply divided on the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration agenda. González, a former top administrator for United States Citizen and Immigration Services under President George W. Bush, has vocally supported the Trump administration in its broad crackdown that has caught US citizens and green card holders in the crosshairs. Just last week the Trump administration placed new restrictions on the ability of Cuban and Venezuelan nationals — major constituencies in Miami — to apply for U.S. citizenship.
Higgins has called the Trump Administration's broad actions on immigration “immoral.”
While Higgins’ line garnered applause at a candidate forum, it is unclear which way Miami voters will turn once international affairs and other factors like affordability come into play.
“We have plenty of evidence of that community being torn between liking the president's approach on [Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro — wanting him out — but very mixed feelings about the aggressiveness with which ICE is going into communities,” said MacManus. “ It's gonna depend a lot on why people vote.”
The Florida Democratic Party sees the race as a way to build momentum and swagger after a series of bruising losses in recent years.
“From phone banking to door knocking, we’re putting in the work to reach every voter and make sure they know Democrats are the ones fighting for them. Local races matter and this December, we’re all in,” party chair Nikki Fried said in a statement. “Floridians are tired of the chaos and ready for leaders who show up, listen, and deliver.”
On their side, Republicans have rallied around González, holding a “Keep Miami Red” rally at the iconic Cuban restaurant Versailles. Outgoing term-limited mayor Francis Suarez is a Republican, and he briefly ran for president in 2024
Democrat Kamala Harris narrowly beat Republican Trump in the City of Miami during the 2024 presidential election, but Miami-Dade has steadily turned rightward in recent years. Trump won the county by 11 points, becoming the first Republican to do so since 1988.
Polls on Tuesday will be open across the City of Miami at 139 voting locations listed here.
Voters who typically vote at the Miami-Dade County Auditorium and the Ebenezer United Methodist Church have had their polling locations changed, according to the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections.
As of late Monday afternoon, a total of 22,957 out of 175,692 eligible voters had cast their vote, with the vast majority voting by mail and the rest doing early voting. That’s just over a 13% voter turnout.
In the first round of the mayoral race, voter turnout reached 21.68%, a large number for the city’s off-year elections that typically garner little turnout and enthusiasm.
