The top of the Democratic side of the Florida ticket is set for this November’s midterm elections, with Democrat David Jolly handily winning the gubernatorial nomination.
Jolly, a centrist Democrat and former Republican congressman, will face off against Republican nominee Byron Donalds, who handily beat ten opponents to secure the Republican nomination in the race.
Running for Lieutenant Governor alongside Jolly is former Democratic Congresswoman Gwen Graham. Her father was Bob Graham, a two-term Democratic Florida governor and longtime U.S. Senator. The Graham family acquired much of its wealth by developing Miami Lakes, and the campaign watch party on Tuesday night took place at a restaurant there.
The first words of Jolly's victory speech touched on the broad support he will need to win the race, calling it a "new majority in American politics."
"There is a new coalition emerging in American politics tonight, and it's starting right here in the state of Florida," said Jolly. "A coalition rooted in the everyday majority. that understands the economy should continue to grow, but it's got to grow for everybody."
Jolly promised that despite his nice boy appearances, centrist demeanor and level-headedness that he will bring a street fight mentality to the gubernatorial race.
A victory over Donalds in November would be a historic turnaround for a beleaguered political party in a state that was once competitive but has turned sharply towards Republicans over the last decade. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 2018.
No Democrat has won a four-year lease at the Governor’s Mansion since Lawton Chiles in 1994, and Republicans have had full control of the Florida government since 1999.
Gwen Graham, who is running alongside Jolly for Lieutenant Governor, said Florida has had enough Republican leadership. The party has had total control of Florida for decades, she said, and now in order to address the exploding cost of living and other issues like access to healthcare and rising energy costs, Byron Donalds is asking for "four more years," she said.
She then led the crowd to a chant: "No more years! No more years!"
Jolly served as a Republican Congressman in the Tampa Bay area between 2014 and 2017. After President Trump came into office, Jolly became increasingly critical of his party, often appearing on national television to criticize Republicans who shifted the party into a more hardline direction under Trump’s leadership.
In 2018 he publicly broke up with the party during an appearance on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher show. He remained independent until 2025, when he registered as a Democrat and declared his intent to run for governor.
"I actually think Republicans in Tallahassee have gone too far in dividing us. I think we should get politicians out of the classrooms, out of the doctor's offices," Jolly told WLRN when announcing his party shift. "I think enough people in Florida, even some Republicans, now understand that. That the culture wars have gone too far.”
At the victory party Jolly spoke about his faith as a devout Christian, and said his faith will always accompany him on the campaign. He said the Republican Party has for too long been allowed to "co-opt the faith community."
"That has to stop. That has to stop. But the answer is to not allow another party to co-opt the church. The answer is to ask government for a simple promise to be extended: Religious liberty for those who practice or those who choose not to practice whatsoever," said Jolly.
In the crowd a man said above the quiet crowd: "Amen."
Jolly said even before he became a registered Democrat, he was already part of a broad “coalition” that opposed the hardline, confrontational politics of President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The idea of a broad “coalition” has become a core part of his brand going into November. Jolly said he wants it to including Democrats, disaffected Republicans and independents to end nearly 30-years of total Republican control of Florida.
In a recent interview with CNN, Jolly said he is in a “post-ideological place” and “does not care about the left-right spectrum.” He said he simply agrees with the broad anti-incumbent trend that has dominated U.S. politics since the COVID-19 pandemic and that swept President Joe Biden into the White House in 2020 and also won President Trump a second term in office in 2024.
In his final call to the crowd, Jolly looked ahead to the general election. An opinion poll released by the campaign minutes after the Associated Press declared him victorious shows Jolly beating Donalds by one percentage point.
"Voters are desperate for change," said Jolly. "We're litigating our national identity right now. We know that. Regardless if you're a Republican, independent, or a Democrat, you know, our politics are broken. This is an opportunity, folks, where we come together as a state and we defy history. I need your help. Gwyn needs your help. Be a part of this coalition. Be a part of real change. Be a part of real change in the state of Florida."
In the lead up to the election, Republicans have the wind in their sails. At least on paper.
For years Florida had more registered Democrats than Republicans, even after state politics became dominated by Republicans. In 2019 Democrats still held a 200,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans. But starting that year Republicans began registering twice as many voters as Democrats, and the numbers began to shift dramatically. The pandemic only exacerbated the trend, as Republicans from other states flocked to Florida.
There are currently about 1.5 million more registered Republicans than there are Democrats in Florida, presenting a simple numerical challenge for Jolly to overcome.
Republican Donalds has raised about $111 million combined through his campaign and his Friends of Byron Donalds PAC, with the vast majority coming from large corporations, according to state records. By contrast, Jolly has raised $6.3 in his campaign. A total of $1.6 million of that came from public money under a state program that uses taxpayer dollars to match small donations by Florida residents. Donalds has only received $823,000 from the state program, showing that his campaign during the crowded Republican primary received less support from individual Florida residents.
Democrats selecting a centrist former Republican as nominee for the race is being met with shrugs from the Republican Party, which paints the decision as an easy lay-up. In 2022 Charlie Christ, a former-Republican Governor, ran for Governor as a Democrat and was defeated in a landslide 19-point victory by Gov. DeSantis.
