Colorado State University has lowered its expectations for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his research team now forecasting a notably quiet year across the basin.
The university, which has issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for 43 consecutive years, first released its 2026 forecast on April 9, also predicting a below-average season with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. That outlook was largely tied to the anticipated development of El Niño. The latest forecast calls for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. El Niño remains the biggest factor behind the quieter outlook: when it is present during the summer months, it often increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical systems to organize, strengthen, or survive.
The ENSO pattern has now developed and is expected to intensify through the hurricane season, likely continuing into the winter.
Also, season forecasts are just guidance for activity and do not show any specific possible landfalls. Colorado State University highlights the probabilities of a storm making landfall, broken down by region. CSU also issued its 2026 probabilities for a major hurricane landfall:
• Entire U.S. coastline: 24% (historical average: 43%)
• U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula: 11% (historical average: 21%)
• Gulf Coast: 14% (historical average: 27%)
• Caribbean: 26% (historical average: 47%)
CSU's six analogs for the 2026 Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast are: 1957, 1965, 1987, 1997, 2009, and 2015. Analogs are selected primarily based on moderate to strong #ElNino, with near average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. pic.twitter.com/3VS2J1XjwG
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 11, 2026
CSU compared the current setup to several previous El Niño years, including 1957, 1965, 1987, 1997, 2009, and 2015. Each of those years produced below-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Based on those analogs, the team expects 2026 to reach about 60% of a typical season. Please make sure you are prepared in advance. There are many things you can do now to make sure you are ready when a storm threatens and to avoid getting caught up in long lines, paying more than expected or even worse be unprepared and at risk.
