What’s next as affordability drives Florida election results

It’s the economy. It’s always the economy.

That’s what voters consistently say they care about. The economy can mean different things — home prices, paychecks, the cost of gas and groceries. It could be health insurance or tuition payments. Perhaps it's mortgage rates or taxes. Pocketbook issues were top-of-mind for Florida voters as they cast ballots this election.

WLRN’s Helen Acevedo spoke with Special Correspondent Tom Hudson about the election and the economy during this week's episode of the returning Sunshine Economy program.

 ACEVEDO: Where do you see the economy showing up most in local election results?

HUDSON: That interest showed up most by voters themselves showing up. People were really motivated to go vote. They wanted their voice heard because we knew affordability was the defining issue in Florida, as it was nationwide. We saw more than 8 million Floridians cast ballots during this midterm election. Turnout was about 60%, so roughly two out of every three voters who are eligible and registered actually showed up. While that's not as high as 2018 — it's strong for a midterm election

Voters said yes to Amendment 3, the property tax question, despite warnings about what it may mean for local governments. Why do you think it passed, and what's next?

I think this also was a place where the economy really showed up at the ballot box, because this was the one question where voters felt that they could have control over the cost of living. Voting for an individual might have an indirect relationship to their pocketbook. But this question, for at least homeowners, they felt this could really affect their cost of living and hopefully bring it down. We saw better than 60% voting in support of this. So I think it was a control mechanism for many voters who are homeowners, that they could exert this control over their budget.

Now, what's next? That's going to be a page to be written in the months ahead. Voters clearly said the property tax system is not working for them. So now the implementation is going to happen. How is this really going to work in practice? (Editor’s note: Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday he will call a special legislative session to implement Amendment 3.)

I think immediately what happens is it puts a premium on home buying before the end of the year. There is an expiration in order to be a resident of Florida to qualify for these higher exemptions for property taxes. Also, there's going to be legal challenges to this in the months ahead. And then the possible full elimination of local government property taxes in the years ahead.

I think for local governments, it's going to mean looking at higher tax rates. They're going to have a lower taxable value for homes, and thus they may try to recoup some of that by higher tax rates. That's not going to be too popular. And then, of course, there is the possibility of other kinds of fee structures.

Amendment 3 passed, aiming to cut some property taxes, but voters also okayed measures that are paid for by property taxes like teacher salaries, school security, parks, and fire stations.

Paradoxical. On one hand, the voters said, "I don't want to pay more in property taxes." On the other hand they said, "We'll pay more in property taxes."

I think voters want clarity. If they know what the tax money is going for, they'll support it. Across South Florida, we saw that with the schools. We saw it with the parks and fire stations taxes

The passage of Amendment 3 sets up a real division in Florida and particularly in South Florida, between homeowners whose home's value is going to be below this higher threshold. They will pay $0 in property taxes for public services for their local governments in the years ahead, versus other homeowners who have homes with higher assessed values, who are going to be paying something. How we navigate that as a community really remains to be seen.

Despite the legislature putting the property tax question on the ballot, a majority of Florida homeowners said it was property insurance, not property taxes that concerned them most. According to a poll by the University of North Florida, more than half said they did not see any signs of the property insurance market getting better despite several new laws passed in recent years designed to slow down fast-rising insurance premiums. What can we expect from the governor-elect?

Governor-elect Donalds ran on an affordability platform. He was very crystal clear on that, and property insurance is part of that. He talked about this during the Sunshine Economy Summit back in September.

Roberto Valladares

“Why do we have a 25% kicker on top to keep filling a CAT fund whose statutory limit is $17 billion? My view is get rid of the kicker,” Donalds said.

He calls this a kicker. It's a surcharge that's on insurance premiums in Florida that goes to the Catastrophe Fund that is kind of the backstop for property insurers. Homeowners simply are just not feeling the reforms that were put into place.

What kind of economy is the new governor and legislature inheriting?

Decent, but mixed. Gasoline is a dollar more expensive today in Florida than it was just a year ago. That’s $15-$20 more per fill-up and that adds up over the course of a month.

We're all experiencing consumer inflation. It one percentage point higher from what it was a year ago. We're seeing that at grocery stores. We're seeing it in rents. We're seeing it also in mortgage rates, which are higher. If you want to buy a home, you're paying more to borrow money.

The unemployment rate is the bright spot. The unemployment rate is still very, very healthy in South Florida – well below 3.5%.

So the job market is healthy, but the cost of living still remains ever-increasing.

Tom, redistricting did not lead to Florida sending more Republicans to Capitol Hill. In fact, Democrats will be in the majority in both the House and the Senate. How might that change affect Florida's economy?

I think the biggest potential place that the change in control on Capitol Hill could affect the local economy is immigration enforcement. You look at some of the traditional industries and jobs that immigrants fulfilled in Florida – healthcare, home healthcare, construction, agriculture – these are areas where some folks running businesses in those industries will say it's been really hard to find people to fulfill jobs. So they have been raising their fees, and that gets captured by the higher inflation rate and higher cost of living.

If Congress begins to flex its muscle with ICE and sees a drop in immigration enforcement like it's been practiced during the first two years of the Trump administration compared to the next two years of the Trump administration, we may see that change in terms of the local workforce.

Share your story of South Florida’s economy. Email us sunshineeconomy@wlrnnews.org. Find The Sunshine Economy podcast here or on your preferred podcast platform.