Two years into President Donald Trump’s second term, voters in South Florida are divided on the direction he’s taken the nation, and which way to turn the ship for the next two years. All eyes are set on the midterm elections to see how the voting tides have shifted or stayed the same.
Political experts in Florida are paying particular attention to Miami-Dade voters this election season to see how inflation, the Iran war and President Trump's intense crackdown on immigration has changed views of his second term in office.
Miami-Dade is a crucial county to measure Trump's popularity because two years ago he became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state's largest county in more than three decades.
The November 2024 Trump trounced Democrat Kamala Harris by 11 points in Miami-Dade to win Florida for the third presidential election in a row. He won the state by a whopping 13 percentage points, a landslide in a state that used to be highly competitive every four years.
A recent poll of Hispanic voters in Florida shows that Trump's popularity has waned over the past two years. It found 51% of disapproved of Trump’s performance in office, while only 41% approved. The survey also found that 20% of Hispanics in Florida who voted for Trump in 2024 would not repeat their vote. Miami-Dade, one of the nation's largest counties, is home to 2.8 million people. A large majority, about 71%, are Hispanic.
Miami-Dade voters
J.C., a longtime Republican voter from the city of Miami Springs who asked not to use his full name for privacy, said this election season has him more disillusioned than ever.
Every week, J.C. sits with a group of men outside a Cuban cafe to talk politics and current events. His group is made up almost entirely of die-hard Trump voters, he said, and their political views haven’t changed at all in the last few years. So, J.C. stays quiet and doesn't express how things have changed for him.
"I'm troubled now because I don't have any confidence either in Republicans or Democrats. I think it's all the same coin, different sides," he told WLRN.
J.C. voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2020. He saw Trump as a chance to weed out what he saw as rampant government corruption. Now, his feelings for the president have soured after seeing numerous scandals and witnessing the U.S. government’s increasing involvement with Israel.
"He gave me the impression he was gonna at least tackle some of the swamp. In reality, Trump is a swamp, and he's really capitulated tremendously to a point where some people think he's a traitor," he said.
The shift in JC’s opinion represents a broader malaise felt by some voters nationwide.
Dario Moreno, a professor of political science at Florida International University, says "Trump fatigue" may be wearing down voters, including Trump supporters.
"Every day there's a headline on Trump. He's always looking for a new controversy, a new issue," Moreno told WLRN. "He's very good at dominating the national dialogue, but it also leads to a fatigue. These are the things that should worry Republicans."
Moreno says Democrats have an advantage going into this year’s elections because historically, the party out of power has the leg up in midterms. That tailwind, along with growing frustration among working class voters over the increased cost of living, could work in the party's favor.
There's also a growing movement among younger voters angered by Trump's policies, especially including violent crackdowns from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
Despite the potential backlash, Moreno and other political experts say Republicans still have advantages in their favor, especially in Florida. Republicans have a massive fundraising lead this year of at least $500 million more than Democrats. Republican voters in Florida also outnumber Democratic voters by more than 1 million.
There's also the detrimental effects for Democrats of recent redistricting in Florida.
"That redistricting effort that the Republicans and DeSantis backed really looks like it's gonna reduce the number of Democrats here in Florida. It leaves a couple of seats for them to fight over very contentious," said South Florida political analyst Sean Foreman during a recent conversation on the South Florida Roundup.
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In South Florida, those controversial Trump policies hit home directly for Miami voters like Aisha Miller.
"ICE is in Allapattah as we speak, I see them. I just saw somebody get snatched up. I watched a family ripped apart," she told WLRN.
Miller is a 25-year-old voter who’s volunteering for the campaign of Daphne Campbell — a Democratic candidate for Florida House District 108 in Miami.
Miller says she’s seen her neighbors fearful of being picked up by immigration officers and has seen them patrolling her neighborhood.
She says she and others around her age are frustrated by the current power structure in politics and is looking to see radical change in the midterms and beyond.
"It's about people in power who don't understand that they're humans just like everyone else, or don't believe humans are supposed to have basic necessities just like everyone else," she said.
Political experts, like FIU's Moreno, say Republicans still have advantages in their favor despite the backlash, especially in Florida. Republicans have a massive fundraising advantage this year of at least $500 million more than Democrats.
Many Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade are also still very much in favor of the Republican party and Trump’s policies.
"My political affiliation to the Republican party has gotten stronger. I feel more conservative than I was before," said Cutler Bay voter Javier Abreu.
Abreu came to the U.S. from Cuba a little over 20 years ago and is now a citizen. He says he’s supported federal and state immigration crackdowns and wants to eliminate what he calls a “socialist invasion” from the Democratic party.
"The standard of living has improved in Florida thanks to the policies against the uncontrolled immigration under the previous administration," he said.
