The Lower Florida Keys could be hit with shortfalls on paying for fire and ambulance services if Florida voters pass Amendment 3 in November, the large property tax cut measure pushed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“ We wanna point this out because in order to generate those same dollars as are being done in the current year, it would be necessary to increase the millage rate,” John Quinn, the Monroe County budget director, told county commissioners on Wednesday.
Under state law, the measure requires 60 percent support from voters to pass in November's election.
If passed, Amendment 3 would raise Florida's homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, reduce the assessment-growth cap for non-homestead residential and commercial properties from 10% to 5%, and create a pathway toward eliminating non-school property taxes on homesteads.
In the first year of Amendment 3 being in effect, fire and ambulance services in the Lower Keys would have an estimated shortfall of $430,287. The following year it would rise to $606,572, according to a presentation given by Quinn.
From there it is likely to go up even more if tax rates are not increased to offset the lost revenue.
The data is one point in a mixed picture for the Florida Keys should Amendment 3 be passed by voters. On the one hand, having enough revenue is going to present problems for keeping basic services operational.
READ MORE: Amendment 3 ballot title, summary language, don’t pass muster, judge rules
On the other hand, Monroe County is one of only two counties across the state that is not immediately projected to lose overall revenue under a new tax regime, according to Monroe County Property Appraiser Scott Russell.
It could be much worse.
The property tax measure has been met with widespread resistance from local governments that worry basic services like police, fire rescue, parks, libraries and healthcare could have to be slashed or cut altogether. Advocates warn less money will be available for building affordable housing. Child service budgets would be slashed in some parts of the state. A judge warned earlier this month that the measure could lead to higher rents, and he ordered a rewrite of the ballot language to reflect that.
The ballot amendment was championed by Gov. DeSantis. Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, who once served as the chief of staff for DeSantis and is facing election in November, distanced himself from the measure as he was ordered to rewrite the ballot language.
Uthmeier wrote in a statement: "The amendment could certainly have been rolled out with greater transparency and the meaningful involvement of key stakeholders, including our law enforcement agencies. No one wants to defund our incredible sheriffs, yet there were no discussions to involve them in this process.”
The Lower Keys would be most affected by the changes simply because it has the highest concentration of people who own the homes they live in, and the money saved by homeowners would result in reduced tax revenues meant for fire and ambulance services. The fire and ambulance service in the Lower Keys is funded with its own taxing district.
Remarkably, the fire and ambulance service for the Lower Keys is the only taxing district in the county set to actually lose revenue should Amendment 3 pass. Revenue for countywide services and local road patrols are still projected to increase, although barely.
Despite that somewhat good news, Quinn said that in the years to come, projected revenue growth for Monroe County will not keep up with inflation and other costs.
In the current fiscal year, the county collected $12.3 million more than last year, and Quinn said that the increase was used to pay for “compensational increase” for Monroe County Sheriff’s Office and Monroe County Fire Rescue workers, contractually obligated increases to vendors and general costs increases due to inflation.
Assuming Amendment 3 goes into effect, overall tax revenue would still increase, but by a much smaller amount. The county would only expect to increase tax revenue by only $287,440 in fiscal year 2027-28, according to data provided by Quinn.
“ What I wanna point out here is that even though we are relieved that we're not seeing a reduction overall in the potential collections, we don't believe these collections would be sufficient to absorb additional cost increases like we've seen in recent years,” warned Quinn. “ We would be at an annual shortfall of a little over $12 million.”
Quinn said that scenario would make it likely that tax rates would have to be raised “ if we would like to continue to fund our operations at the same levels.”
He said county staffers are in the process of trying to map out what expenses the county has that are “legally obligated” to figure out exactly how much wiggle room local elected officials have on managing the budget going forward with the shortfalls in mind.
Quinn said the overall picture for the county is a result of the Florida Keys having a low amount of homesteaded properties, making it less impacted than counties or cities with high concentrations of homesteaded properties. Over 60% of the county’s taxable value comes from non-homesteaded residential properties, meaning rental properties and vacation homes.
Since Amendment 3 would offer the most savings to homesteaded properties, it would fundamentally change the calculus of who pays for taxes in the county.
“ The key point here is this post-implementation of Amendment 3, the non-homestead segment of Monroe County's population as far as taxable value goes, starts to increase,” said Scott Russell, the Monroe County Property Appraiser.
In other words, Monroe County would be more reliant on taxes collected from vacation homes or rental properties – indirectly paid for by renters. Homeowners would be more off the hook for paying for services as renters and vacation home owners pick up the tab.
“ So this is a shift of funds?” asked Mayor Pro Tem David Rice.
“Yes,” said property appraiser Rice.
The Monroe County commission is planning to hold an informational meeting for residents and voters in mic-October so county leaders can further explain what the impacts of Amendment 3 might be before voting begins.
