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UnidosUS poll: Cost of living, ICE arrests pull Latino voters away from Republicans toward Democrats

Official elections signage welcomes voters to a polling place in English, Spanish, and Creole, at a church in Homestead, Fla., on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell
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AP
Official elections signage welcomes voters to a polling place in English, Spanish, and Creole, at a church in Homestead, Fla., on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Skyrocketing homeowners insurance premiums, high property taxes, and aggressive immigration enforcement tactics pushed Florida’s Latino voters toward Democratic candidates in tightly contested statewide races, according to new survey released by UnidosUS on Tuesday.

The findings from the 2026 Midterm Election Voter Poll show a notable shift in the state's Hispanic voting patterns, mirroring other polls showing a similar movement of Hispanic voters across the country.

Florida Latino voters backed Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives, 57%-41%, reflecting an eight-point gain compared to Democrat Kamala Harris’s 49% share among the state's Latino voters in the 2024 presidential race against Republican Donald Trump. Exit polls in 2024 show Trump won Hispanic voters 56%-43%.

The shift extended to high-stakes statewide contests in Florida that were decided by narrow margins compared to the previous midterm election.

READ MORE: Driven by soaring cost of living and immigration backlash, Latino voters reshape 2026 elections

In the race for U.S. Senate, Florida Latino voters favored Democrat Angie Nixon over Republican Ashley Moody by a margin of 53%-43%. Moody defeated Nixon, 51%-48%, or just over 237,000 votes, according to the latest returns.

In the governor's contest, Democrat David Jolly secured 53% of the Latino vote compared to 41% for Republican Byron Donalds, who won 50%-49%. or about 106,000 votes.

More than 8.3 million Floridians voted in this year's midterm elections.

In 2022, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won his reelection by more than 19 points. Then-Attorney General Ashley Moody won by more than 20 percentage points, while Republicans running for chief financial officer and commissioner of agriculture won by nearly the same double-digit margin.

Latino voters top concerns: economy, affordability

The statewide poll was conducted by BSP Research in collaboration with UnidosUS — the nation's largest civil rights group — and a coalition of national advocacy organizations.

According to the poll, economic pressures and daily affordability concerns dominated voter priorities across the state.

A majority of respondents (59%) ranked the cost of living and inflation as their primary concern, followed by jobs and the economy (35%), affordable housing and rent (33%), and health care costs (33%).

More than half — 52% of Florida Latino voters — reported having nothing left over at the end of the month, facing major financial difficulties, or struggling to make ends meet. When asked about specific household expenses, voters cited groceries (49%), housing (46%), gasoline (39%), and health care or prescription drugs (34%) as their top financial burdens. On the housing front, high utility costs and property taxes topped concerns at 41%, followed by rising rents (31%) and insurance rates (28%).

“Florida’s Latino voters sent a clear message this election: They are stretched to the limit, and they expect results,” said Jared Nordlund, Florida State Director for UnidosUS. “They’re not asking for slogans or culture wars. They want lower costs, affordable childcare and health care they can count on.”

Immigration enforcement also shaped voter opinions. More than eight in ten respondents (81%) said actions by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement have gone over the line, a figure that includes 78% of Cuban American voters, who represent the largest group of Latino voters in the state.

Additionally, 78% expressed support for measures requiring ICE agents to wear identifiable uniforms and body cameras, while prohibiting masks and restricting the use of force. Overall, 92% favored a balanced immigration policy that includes an earned path to citizenship and border security.

New Latino voters

The survey found that a significant percentage of Florida voters — 34% — cast their first general election ballot in 2022 or later, a figure that rose to 52% among voters under the age of 40.

“This is a young, growing electorate that isn’t loyal to any party, and it will hold leaders in Tallahassee and Washington accountable for delivering,” Nordlund said.

Here are other key survey findings on specific issues:

— 88% support creating a universal childcare or early childhood education program at low or no cost to families of all incomes.
— 84% support a path to permanent legal status and citizenship for long-residing undocumented immigrants who pass a background check and pay a fine.
— 83% support regulating artificial intelligence (AI) so that humans, not AI systems, stay in control of military weapons, banks and Americans’ personal information.
— 82% support restoring full federal funding for food and nutrition programs (SNAP) cut in 2025.
— 79% support restoring the Affordable Care Act tax credits that help families buy health insurance.
— 61% support blocking the use of public school funds for vouchers for tuition at private or religious schools.

Sergio Bustos is WLRN's Vice President for News. He's been an editor at the Miami Herald and POLITICO Florida. Most recently, Bustos was Enterprise/Politics Editor for the USA Today Network-Florida’s 18 newsrooms. Reach him at sbustos@wlrnnews.org
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