The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continued to call for a slow hurricane season in its updated seasonal forecast issued Thursday.
With two tropical storms already on the books, forecasters say the season will now likely produce one less named storm than they predicted in May. They also slightly lowered the range for hurricanes and major hurricanes, dropping the number of hurricanes to between two and six from a May forecast calling for three to six. They lowered the range for major hurricanes from one to three to possibly none at all or up to two big storms.
READ MORE: 2026 Atlantic hurricane season guide
An average hurricane season can produce 14 named storms, with up to seven becoming hurricanes. Of those, on average, three become major hurricanes.
The unusually slow season has so far produced just two short-lived tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha.
Both formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico in June and July - and typical for early season storms - near Texas and Louisiana. Arthur dropped heavy rains that fueled dangerous flash-flooding as it made landfall near Galveston, Texas. Just over a month later, Bertha formed off the Florida Panhandle, eventually making landfall about 40 miles east of New Orleans, with storm surge flooding reaching Alabama’s coast.
Forecasters say this year’s El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific is helping quiet the season after nearly a decade of above average storms. The El Niño began forming in June and is expected to continue producing strong atmospheric winds in the Atlantic that help shear off the tops of storms to keep them from strengthening.
“When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” NOAA lead season forecaster Matt Rosencrans, said in a statement. “Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”
Even with the forecast for a mild season, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, also the former chief of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, warned the public to stay prepared.
“Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated," Graham said in NOAA’s statement. “That’s why it’s important to prepare for every storm that’s projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.”
