Byron Donalds enjoyed a relatively stress-free night Tuesday in defeating 10 opponents to capture the Republican nomination for governor and goes into November’s general election as the favorite against Democrat David Jolly.
Donalds defeated Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, 48%-25%. Investment firm CEO James Fishback came in third place at 10% and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner was at 9%.
Collins showed significant strength in the Panhandle. The decorated Army Special Forces combat veteran defeated Donalds in 14 counties in North Florida. He also took Hardee County in Central Florida.
In Dixie and Liberty counties, Donalds finished in third place behind Collins and Bobby Williams, founder of a disaster relief and food distribution organization who finished in fifth place with 4% of the vote.
What explains Collins’ strong support in North Florida?
A spokesperson said Wednesday that Collins understands the needs of the region.
“He grew up on a farm, was raised to understand the value of hard work, and he defended our nation in battle,” said Meghan Van Joosten with the Collins campaign.
“That matters to the people of Northern Florida when they’re choosing a leader. Winning 14 counties in that region wasn’t an accident, it reflects the time Jay spent on the ground there, the relationships built with local leaders, and a message that clearly resonated with voters who care about conservative values.”
Military record
Also, his military record put him in tune with a region home to six major military installations. The Florida Panhandle is considered one of the most military- and veteran-supportive regions in the state, if not the country.
“As a veteran who was wounded, that might have been a strong attraction for an electorate that is pretty supportive of the military in the Panhandle,” said University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett.
Collins served for 23 years in the U.S. Army, with deployments as a Special Forces medic to Afghanistan, Iraq, and twice to South America.
During his 2007 Afghanistan deployment, he was shot in the arm and helped perform surgery on himself in the field. A few months later, he sustained additional injuries that would eventually lead to the amputation of his left leg in 2012. Following that amputation, Collins re-qualified as a fully deployable special forces operator, going on to serve for five more years on active duty.
Those incidents were what led Ron DeSantis to label him “the Chuck Norris of Florida politics” when he appointed Collins to serve as lieutenant governor in August 2025.
Although the governor never endorsed him (nor anyone else in the race to succeed him), Collins was telling reporters as recently as last week that his appointment was a clear indication DeSantis believed that he was “ready to lead the state of Florida.”
Donalds criminal record
Tampa Bay-area political strategist Barry Edwards also believes some of Collins’ success over Donalds in North Florida was that he leaned hard on Donalds’ criminal arrest record. “That resonated with older, very conservative white people. They were exploiting that.”
Collins released a 13-page report on Donalds’ alleged “liabilities” to reporters in April. That document included references to Donalds’ record and other previously reported issues regarding stock trades and his family’s involvement in charter schools.
In an interview with CBS Miami in March, Donalds acknowledged he made “terrible decisions” during his youth regarding a marijuana charge and a charge of bribery.
“These issues get talked about now or they get talked about in October, where we cannot risk this state falling and having [David] Jolly as our next governor,” Collins said at the time. “This is not a risk that we can afford to take here in Florida.”
Edwards said Jolly “needs to be very careful” if he intends to make that aspect of Donalds past part of his campaign. “That’s already been done.”
Steve Vancore, a longtime Tallahassee consultant and pollster, wrote in Florida Politics that “Donalds’ performance in rural North Florida could be a problem down the stretch. We can’t know why he underperformed there. But if a lack of enthusiasm translates into voters staying home, whatever the reason, this thing could come down to the wire.”
So many candidates
Speaking Thursday night in Tampa, Donalds attributed his loss in 17 counties to “just what happens when you have a multi-candidacy primary. Jay worked incredibly hard. So did Paul (Renner).”
He also praised the success of little-covered Republican candidate Bobby Williams, who received double-digit support in several northern rural Florida counties.
“But it’s about just winning,” Donalds added to the Phoenix. “There’s no substitute for that. Win, and then you adjust your strategy. I just think for rural counties in our state, we want them to know that we’re not leaving them behind. We want to make sure that rural Florida is protected. Just as much as we are in some of the more urban counties in Florida.”
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