Updated October 8, 2026 at 9:54 AM EDT
Isaias is now the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 — and it's spinning toward the southeastern U.S., according to the National Hurricane Center. Isaias strengthened into a hurricane Wednesday night and is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday afternoon, with landfall possible late Friday or early Saturday.
As of Thursday morning, Isaias was about 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east-northeast at 9 mph. The storm's maximum sustained winds were 80 mph, the hurricane center said.
A wide swath of the Gulf Coast is under a hurricane warning, from Ocean Springs, Miss., to the area around Mexico Beach in Florida. Storm surge alerts cover an even larger area. If the storm surge's peak coincides with high tide, it could hit the coastline from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, Fla., with five to seven feet of water.
Isaias ends an extraordinary four-month run with no other Atlantic hurricanes since the season began on June 1.
"While we anticipated a well below-average season this year, it's certainly been surprising to see just how quiet it has been," Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, told NPR.
Since 1851, only three hurricane seasons on record have had no hurricanes through Oct. 7, Klotzbach said – though he noted that some early storms might have been missed in the era before aircraft reconnaissance or satellites.
The dearth is widely attributed to a Super El Niño climate pattern that has made powerful ocean storms less likely in the Atlantic and much more likely in the Pacific. In an average year, the Atlantic would have had at least five hurricanes by now, according to the National Hurricane Center, citing data from recent decades.
The center predicts Isaias could bring up to 10 inches of rain to some areas, with 3 to 7 inches possible from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the weekend.
Isaias is expected to turn toward the Northeast over Thursday and Friday; the hurricane center said forecast models are somewhat divided over the exact timing of those shifts, which would determine where the storm makes landfall.
After becoming a tropical storm on Tuesday, Isaias moved over a part of the Gulf of Mexico where conditions are very favorable for intensification, with sea surface temperatures around 87 degrees. Such warm ocean water helps tropical storms build strength and draw in moisture, adding to their potential rainfall. Because of those conditions, recent forecasts have boosted predictions about the storm's power.
Warmer sea surface temperatures are linked to human-caused climate change, a critical factor in making hurricanes larger and more likely to bring intense winds and rainfall when they make landfall.
El Niño's storm-inhibiting effects aren't as strong in the Gulf of Mexico as they are in the tropical Atlantic, Klotzbach said. The new hurricane, he added, formed with the help of a cyclonic "gyre" system that can generate storms on either side of Central America. It's responsible for both Isaias in the Atlantic and for Tropical Depression 20E in the Pacific.
A potentially positive aspect of the forecast is that Isaias is expected to move quickly over land after making landfall, rather than hovering over already-inundated areas.
"Isaias will be moving quickly as it comes onshore, which should hopefully reduce the chances for catastrophic flooding," Klotzbach said. But, he adds, the storm will still bring dangerous amounts of rain.
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